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We Want To Maintain Our Eye on the Ball to Save the Planet


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Final Up to date on: nineteenth February 2025, 08:08 pm

Air air pollution, international warming, and power safety are three of the most important issues dealing with the world at the moment. Annually, not less than seven million folks die from air air pollution and a whole bunch of thousands and thousands extra develop into in poor health. About 90% of this air pollution is from power. World warming is already inflicting super injury, and now we have till solely 2030 to remove 80% of the world’s greenhouse gasoline emissions and till 2035 to 2050 to remove the remaining to keep away from far more than 1.5 levels Celsius international warming because the 1850 to 1900 interval. Third, the world faces a number of energy-security dangers — financial, social, and political instability that may come up when fossil fuels and uranium run out; blackmail by some nations that management the availability of gasoline to different nations; excessive prices of transport power lengthy distances; blackouts when a centralized fossil-fuel or nuclear energy plant unexpectedly goes down; and well being and environmental issues related to fossil fuels and nuclear. 

These three issues require rapid and drastic options — options that may be applied rapidly at low price whereas fixing all three issues concurrently. We have to preserve our eye on the ball to resolve these issues. We can not wait till a miracle expertise arrives to resolve the issues or distract ourselves with poor applied sciences that both don’t assist, assist minimally, or deal with just one drawback however not the others. Poor applied sciences embrace carbon seize, artificial (versus pure) direct air carbon seize (direct air seize), blue hydrogen, electro-fuels, new small and enormous nuclear reactors, and bioenergy.

For instance, investing in carbon seize and direct air seize will increase air air pollution, carbon dioxide emissions, fossil-fuel mining, fossil-fuel infrastructure, carbon dioxide and fossil-fuel pipelines, power necessities, non-public power prices, and social power prices (by an element of 9–12) relative to investing the identical cash in clear, renewable power. What’s extra, over 82% of all carbon dioxide captured worldwide, in actuality, is used for enhanced oil restoration. Throughout this course of, 30% to 40% of the carbon dioxide captured is launched again to the air. Additional, one other 20% to 80% captured is launched because of the extra oil obtained, so a complete of 50% to 120% of the carbon dioxide captured throughout enhanced oil restoration is launched. 

Blue hydrogen is hydrogen made out of fossil gasoline, however with two units of carbon seize gear added to it. As such, blue hydrogen faces the identical issues as carbon seize and just isn’t useful. Electro-fuels are artificial fuels containing hydrogen and carbon for transportation proposed to be made out of blue hydrogen plus captured carbon dioxide, so equally, they aren’t useful. Plus, they’re burned in automobiles for power, creating air air pollution. 

The fossil gasoline business promotes all 4 applied sciences (carbon seize, direct air seize, blue hydrogen, and electro-fuels) as a result of such applied sciences give them an excuse to not cease burning coal, oil, or fossil gasoline. In reality, all 4 applied sciences are alternative prices whose actual impacts are to increase the lifetime of the fossil-fuel business with out serving to air air pollution, local weather, or power safety one bit. 

New nuclear suffers from a 10- to 21-year time lag between planning and operation (too lengthy to be helpful for fixing the three issues), prices per unit power which might be 5 to eight instances these of recent wind and photo voltaic (too costly), weapons proliferation danger, meltdown danger, saved radioactive waste danger, underground uranium mining lung most cancers danger, and carbon dioxide emissions which might be 9 to 37 instances these of onshore wind (thus too dangerous). Burning biofuels for transportation, even with carbon seize, connected to ethanol refineries produces much more air air pollution and greenhouse gases than electrifying transportation and offering the electrical energy from clear, renewable sources, whereas utilizing rapacious quantities of land and water. 

Quite than looking for a miracle, we discover in entrance of us present wind, water, and photo voltaic (WWS) applied sciences. WWS consists of power from the wind (onshore and offshore wind electrical energy), the water (hydroelectricity, tidal and ocean present electrical energy, wave electrical energy, geothermal electrical energy, and geothermal warmth), and the solar (photo voltaic photovoltaic electrical energy, concentrated solar energy electrical energy and warmth, and direct photo voltaic warmth). When mixed with storage; methods to shift the time of electrical energy use (demand response); a well-interconnected electrical transmission system; and environment friendly electrical home equipment, comparable to warmth pumps, induction cooktops, electrical automobiles, and electrical furnaces for business, WWS can resolve all three issues at low price worldwide.

Picture from Environmental Science & Tech., 2025, article “Power, Well being, and Local weather Prices of Carbon-Seize and Direct-Air-Seize versus 100%-Wind-Water-Photo voltaic Local weather Insurance policies in 149 Nations

The most important purpose why a WWS system is low price is that it makes use of a lot much less power than does a combustion-based power system. Worldwide, the power that individuals use goes down by over 54% with WWS. The discount is for 5 causes: the effectivity of electrical automobiles over combustion automobiles, the effectivity of electrical warmth pumps for air and water heating over combustion heaters, the effectivity of electrified business, eliminating power wanted to acquire fossil fuels and uranium, and a few effectivity enhancements past what is predicted.

On prime of that, WWS reduces the price per unit power by one other 11% on common, leading to a 60% decrease annual power price worldwide. Including well being and local weather price financial savings offers an total 92% discount in annual social price (which is the power plus well being plus local weather price) relative to a standard system.

The worldwide upfront capital price of such a 2050 WWS system is round $58 trillion. Nonetheless, because of the $10 trillion annual power price financial savings, the payback time is lower than six years. A 100% WWS system might also create about 23 million extra long-term, full-time jobs than misplaced worldwide and will require solely about 0.51% of the world’s land for brand new power, lower than the land required for the present power system.

What’s extra, now we have 95% to 97% of the applied sciences we have to resolve the issue. Those we don’t have embrace long-distance plane and ships and a few industrial applied sciences, however we all know technologically easy methods to transition these. We additionally have options for “hard-to-abate” cement and metal course of and different non-energy emissions. So, if now we have nearly all that we want, why do we want “miracle applied sciences?” We don’t. In reality, to resolve our issues, we have to keep away from insurance policies that divert funds from true options. We have to educate the general public and coverage makers about what works and what doesn’t, thus overcoming the distractions and false advertizing which have plagued us so far.

Mark Z. Jacobson is a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Stanford College. He’s the creator of seven books, together with “No Miracles Wanted”.



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