Tesla Photo voltaic Gross sales Declined for 4 Straight Quarters, Then Tesla Stopped Publishing the Numbers

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I’ve to place my arms up — when Tesla acquired SolarCity in 2016, I supported the choice. Sure, Elon Musk was chairman of each firms. Sure, it was his cousins who had been CEO and CTO, and had based the corporate primarily based on a suggestion from Elon Musk at Burning Man. Sure, Tesla was saving SolarCity financially in key methods. Nonetheless, I assumed there was excellent synergy between the businesses and big potential for extra photo voltaic gross sales by the Tesla model, gross sales community, and buyer base.

Since then, Tesla has finished some great things, however I’ve to say that I’ve been very disillusioned in Tesla’s relatively gentle, disconnected, and general lame efforts to promote extra rooftop solar energy.

One thing I observed some time again proved the purpose. Tesla’s quarterly rooftop solar energy installations began dropping, and dropping, and dropping. In some unspecified time in the future, I spotted this had gone from an up & down section of Tesla’s enterprise to a long-term, vital decline.

I made a decision to return and really see how lengthy Tesla had been seeing its photo voltaic enterprise decline. Sadly, the findings weren’t uplifting. After it’s “final good quarter,” the 4th quarter of 2022, when 100 megawatts (MW) of solar energy had been put in, Tesla’s rooftop photo voltaic installations declined for no less than 4 consecutive quarters. The corporate printed the numbers for these 4 quarters, however then, within the subsequent quarter, Q1 2024, Tesla merely lamented that its photo voltaic installations had declined yr over yr however stopped publishing these figures. Presumably, the rooftop photo voltaic gross sales decline continued — in any other case, Tesla would have highlighted a return to development. However we simply can’t make sure of that in each quarter.

Within the “Property” part of Tesla’s quarterly monetary studies, the corporate does nonetheless publish “Photo voltaic power programs, internet.” And the totals for which have continued to say no in each quarter since then. So, if we presume continued quarter-over-quarter declines in solar energy installations, that might be 8 straight quarters of decline (not making a judgement on Q1 2025 but, however I’m not hopeful about that quarter both).

Apart from latest quarters, when you have a look at the complete chart and graph above, it definitely stands out that Tesla’s photo voltaic installations have dropped off a cliff in comparison with the place they had been proper after the SolarCity acquisition. In This fall 2016, 201 MW of solar energy had been put in. In Q1 2017, 150 MW had been put in. In Q2 2017, 176 MW had been put in. After which Tesla by no means obtained near these figures once more. In Q3 2017, 109 MW of solar energy had been put in, and Tesla has solely damaged 100 MW of latest solar energy capability in 1 / 4 twice since then.

The pattern in these 4 quarters of 2023 — the final quarters Tesla printed that information for — was unhealthy, very had. If that pattern continued in 2024, we have now to imagine Tesla’s photo voltaic enterprise is a shell of what it was a number of (or perhaps a few) years in the past.

That is horrible to see for anybody cheering on cleantech development. Far more solar energy must be put in, and an enormous slowdown in photo voltaic installations from a big firm like Tesla simply doesn’t make sense to me. Even not making an attempt laborious, it looks like the corporate ought to be capable of discover many shoppers able to take the photo voltaic plunge.

Right here’s the above chart and graph once more in interactive type (greatest considered on an actual pc, not a telephone):

Some other ideas on these numbers and graphics?