Arguably the weirdest candidate of the 2024 election is successfully ending his presidential marketing campaign.
Following a controversy-filled marketing campaign that included revelations {that a} worm had eaten a part of his mind and that he was answerable for the bear carcass that mysteriously appeared in Central Park in 2014, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. introduced that he’s withdrawing his presidential bid together with his working mate Nicole Shanahan in 10 battleground states the place his presence may make him a spoiler for former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris. He stated his title will stay on the poll elsewhere.
He additionally endorsed Trump, reportedly hopeful that he may safe the place of Trump’s well being secretary if he wins.
Kennedy was as soon as an environmental lawyer with a storied final title identified for his work cleansing up the Hudson River. Lately, nonetheless, he has turn into identified for spreading conspiracy theories about medication, together with vaccines and anti-depressants. He used the recognition he gained as an anti-vaxxer in the course of the pandemic to briefly problem President Joe Biden within the Democratic main earlier than saying an unbiased bid for president in October 2023.
He had been seen as a possible spoiler for each candidates, given his connection to the Democratic Kennedy dynasty in addition to his embrace of the anti-establishment and anti-vaccine views held by sure segments of the GOP. He was polling round 10 % nationally for the higher a part of 2024, and even increased in some swing state polls.
However he struggled to get on the poll in lots of states, although his marketing campaign maintains that he has secured sufficient signatures to take action in all however Kentucky, Mississippi, Rhode Island, and Wyoming. After Harris grew to become the Democratic nominee, he appeared to carry much less sway amongst voters who had been turned off by Biden. His ballot numbers consequently cratered to below 5 %.
Regardless of Kennedy’s flagging nationwide numbers, polling suggests his exit from the race may nonetheless assist Trump, with whom he’s turn into decidedly extra cozy in current months. Trump wouldn’t need to win a variety of Kennedy’s potential voters to make a distinction in key swing states; if the race is as shut because it was in 2020, Trump gaining even a fraction of a % from Kennedy may make the distinction.
Kennedy’s exit might assist Trump the place it issues probably the most
Trump most likely has probably the most to realize from Kennedy dropping out. Kennedy has more and more endeared himself to Republican voters whereas struggling to get the identical help amongst Democrats and independents. And polls carried out in current months, together with since Biden dropped out of the race, recommend that Trump would choose up extra of Kennedy’s supporters. Any margin would possible be small — however probably vital.
Republicans are likely to see Kennedy extra favorably than Democrats, and people with favorable views towards him are likely to have extra favorable opinions of Trump than of Harris, in accordance with a July AP-NORC ballot carried out earlier than Biden dropped out.
A number of nationwide polls carried out since Harris grew to become the presumptive nominee have additionally examined a race between Harris, Trump, and Kennedy, in addition to a two-way race between Harris and Trump. Trump tends to get a much bigger bump than Harris when Kennedy is excluded.
In an August Reuters/Ipsos ballot of registered voters, as an example, Harris acquired 42 % help, Trump 37 %, and Kennedy 4 %, whereas 15 % supported one other candidate, weren’t positive who they’d help, or weren’t positive if they’d vote in any respect. However when voters had been pushed to pick both Trump or Harris, 49 % backed Harris and 47 % Trump — a ten share level enhance for Trump.
Trump had the same edge with Kennedy voters in a July Harvard CAPS/Harris Ballot. In a three-way contest, Harris earned 44 % help, Trump 47 %, and Kennedy 10 %. In a head-to-head ballot, Harris earned 48 % and Trump 52 %.
It might look like the benefit Trump positive factors when Kennedy is out of the image is comparatively small. However Biden received in 2020 by exceedingly slim margins in six key battleground states; in Arizona, it was by lower than 11,000 votes. On the margin, Kennedy’s supporters may make a distinction, relying on the place they’re distributed.
In Arizona, for instance, Kennedy is polling at about 6 %, in accordance with The Hill’s polling common. In fact, he may not have truly received that enormous a vote share if he had determined to remain within the race there; third-party candidates are likely to ballot a lot better than they really carry out on Election Day, when their supporters are confronted with the fact that their most popular candidate received’t win. However that vote share would have been greater than sufficient to have swung the 2020 ends in the opposite path.
The identical is true in different swing states, the place polling suggests a really tight race. An early August New York Instances/Siena survey of registered voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin discovered Harris main Trump 46 % to 43 % when respondents got all third-party candidates to select from. When requested to choose between simply Harris and Trump, the hole tightened to 48 and 46 %, respectively. These states are more likely to be key, given their excessive electoral school vote rely — and in most eventualities, Harris would want all three to win.
Harris’s entry into the race possible limits the affect of Kennedy’s exit
Whereas Kennedy’s supporters should have the ability to make an essential affect on the margins, their energy to pull the Democratic nominee’s polling down appears to have diminished considerably.
Earlier than Harris grew to become the nominee, there was a a lot bigger than common variety of disaffected voters who didn’t like both Biden or Trump and simply needed somebody — anybody — as a substitute. A theoretical no-name candidate as a substitute for Biden and Trump obtained about 10 % in Ipsos polling carried out earlier this 12 months.
Kennedy offered another for some time. However when Harris stepped up, that undermined his attraction — a minimum of amongst Democrats.
“There have been some wavering Democratic voters who simply thought Biden was too previous, or they didn’t like him, and Harris is only a extra interesting candidate for these sorts of individuals,” stated Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball on the College of Virginia Heart for Politics.
Kondik stated it’s doable that Biden might have ended up successful again these voters anyway if he had stayed within the race and had a typical post-Democratic Nationwide Conference bump.
However at this level, Kondik stated, he wouldn’t be stunned if the third-party vote share within the election finally ends up being about 2 % of the voters, because it was in 2012 and 2020. Earlier than Harris grew to become the nominee, political analysts had been projecting that it could be nearer to the practically 6 % share third events obtained in 2016, which some analysts argued doomed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s candidacy.
“For all of the speak about third events on this election, a mixture of probably the most distinguished third-party candidate dropping out, along with the elevated favorability of the 2 main get together nominees, implies that there’s simply going to be much less of a marketplace for third-party candidates,” he stated.
Kennedy may make extra of an affect as a surrogate for Trump. He may assist the previous president with sure demographics, corresponding to younger males who take heed to distinguished personalities corresponding to Joe Rogan, who has praised Kennedy.
However the Trump marketing campaign may additionally be cautious of attaching itself too intently to Kennedy’s model: If the mind worm and the bear incident weren’t sufficient, he has been disavowed by members of his personal well-known household and now peddles conspiracy theories not simply in regards to the Covid-19 vaccine, however his father’s killer, 5G cellphone transmission, fraud within the 2004 election, and extra.
“The Democratic chorus towards Trump and [his running mate JD] Vance is that they’re ‘bizarre,’” Kondik stated. “Kennedy doesn’t make them much less bizarre.”
Replace, August 23, 4 pm: This story was initially printed on August 22 and has been up to date to incorporate Kennedy’s announcement about dropping out in 10 states.
