We’ve added a Plan Visualizer software contained in the Agile Mentors Neighborhood. When doing agile planning, use this free software to forecast the chance that an agile or Scrum crew can full a specific amount of labor inside a goal variety of iterations.

AMC member? Entry the Plan Visualizer software.

Pattern Agile Forecast

Suppose a crew has been requested to finish 240 story levels inside 8 iterations (marked with a purple dot within the picture under). The crew estimates that its future velocity will fall within the vary of 26–34. The numbers (26 and 34) are used to attract the strains displaying how a lot may be delivered.

A velocity of 26 for eight sprints will lead to 208 factors accomplished; the decrease line is under the goal of 240 indicated by the purple dot. The crew’s high-velocity estimate of 34 ends in 272 factors; that line is above the goal.

As a result of the specified scope falls between what’s achievable with the crew’s predicted high- and low- velocity estimates, the goal is possible. It’s not assured, however it’s achievable.

If the crew’s velocity vary estimates had been decrease, say 20–26, the purple dot would seem within the purple zone, which might point out that the specified quantity of labor isn’t possible, even on the crew’s excessive velocity estimate.

Equally, if the low quantity within the estimated velocity vary is excessive sufficient to complete all the pieces, the purple dot can be within the inexperienced zone. This means the goal set of labor may be very achievable.

Speaking with Stakeholders

I take advantage of charts like this to reply questions on why sure requests are simply not attainable.

A chart that exhibits a set of labor and an accompanying goal deadline within the purple zone makes it clear that, even on the crew’s optimistic velocity estimate, the specified work can’t be accomplished in time. (I do not trouble displaying the chart if the request lands within the inexperienced zone. We simply get to work and delight clients by ending early.)

What If the Forecast Reveals We Can not End?

When the focused set of labor and deadline are above one or each velocity estimates, you might have a number of choices:

• Lengthen the deadline (enhance the variety of sprints)
• Scale back the scope
• Lengthen the deadline and cut back the scope

You should utilize the Plan Visualizer software to experiment with totally different eventualities. Enhance the variety of sprints and see the way it seems to be. Scale back the scope and see the way it seems to be.

Use the software to collaborate with stakeholders and set the correct expectations.

AMC member? Entry the Plan Visualizer software.

Forecasting Velocity

To find out the viability of a plan, it’s a must to forecast velocity.

The Plan Visualizer means that you can manually enter a velocity vary. (You should utilize one other free software, the Velocity Vary Calculator, or a method known as resampling velocity to estimate the speed vary your self.) Or, in case you enter historic velocity numbers, the Plan Visualizer will forecast a variety for you.

(In case you don’t have any historic knowledge, you’ll be able to nonetheless forecast velocity. This Superior Subjects in Agile Planning presentation exhibits a technique to try this. How you can Estimate Velocity as an Agile Marketing consultant exhibits one other)

Let’s check out how the Plan Visualizer forecasts a velocity vary.

What to Take into account When Forecasting Velocity

One of many stuff you’ll wish to know is your crew’s imply velocity. To calculate it, look again at as a lot knowledge as you suppose related; I’d take into account a yr a great higher restrict. A crew has seemingly modified sufficient in a yr that older knowledge received’t be very predictive. (Right here’s some recommendation on predicting velocity in case your crew modifications often.)

To forecast a future velocity, you additionally want to contemplate how far forward you’re planning. In case you’re solely planning one dash forward, it could be dangerous to make use of the crew’s common. That’s, in any case, an common. The crew undoubtedly skilled some sprints higher than the typical and a few worse.

The crew on this chart has a median velocity of 29. However previously, their velocity has been as little as 18 and as excessive as 37. In the event that they have been requested to forecast their velocity within the subsequent dash, their sincere reply could be anyplace from 18 to 37.

However suppose as a substitute they’re requested to forecast its velocity over the following 1,000 sprints. With that many sprints, the excessive and low velocities will stability out. The crew can safely forecast that their velocity can be 29, their common.

(I’m, in fact, ignoring the truth that the crew can be studying and enhancing over 1,000 sprints. And that incredible new applied sciences will emerge. Nicely, and in addition that the majority of them will most likely retire—since 1,000 two-week sprints equals 38 years!)

In sum, to forecast velocity precisely it is best to use a variety. In case you’re forecasting just one dash forward, the estimate vary must be broad. The vary can slender as you look additional forward.

Utilizing a Prediction Interval

The Plan Visualizer forecasts a future velocity vary utilizing a statistical idea generally known as a prediction interval, which is given by this system:

That may look difficult, so let me break it down piece by piece.

We begin with the crew’s common, or imply, velocity. We then add and subtract some quantity to that, and that’s all the pieces to the correct of the plus-minus image. Right here’s what that system means.

What’s a t-value?

The t-value is predicated on how assured we wish to be within the plan (we’ll use 90%) and the variety of historic velocity values you might have. In case you had a statistics course previously, you could bear in mind t-values from that.

The Plan Visualizer calculates the t-value for you. However it’s also possible to search for t-values on-line or use a spreadsheet operate.

What’s the s within the system?

The s within the system is the usual deviation of the crew’s velocities. It’s a measure of dispersion. It’s how unfold out a crew’s velocities are. Groups whose velocity bounces round between 28 and 32 could have a smaller customary deviation than these with a velocity vary between 20 and 40.

What are the h and f within the system?

Beneath the sq. root signal we have now 1 divided by h added to 1 divided by f. The variables h and f symbolize the variety of historic and future sprints.

If, for instance, this crew has 10 sprints’ value of knowledge then h is 10. In case you’re predicting their velocity for 5 future iterations then f is 5.

On this case we’d add 1 over 10 to 1 over 5 to get the worth underneath the sq. root signal.

Prediction Interval Calculation in Motion

Earlier than working an instance prediction interval calculation, bear in mind you don’t must do any of this work: the Plan Visualizer will forecast velocity for you.

For our instance, I’ll use the speed graph proven above.

Step one is to calculate the imply and the usual deviation. That is trivial in Excel or Google Sheets. We simply use the common and stdev capabilities.

Doing that, we get a imply of 29.4 and a normal deviation of 5.75.

To get the t-value we use the spreadsheet operate T.INV.2T. It takes two parameters. First, the worth .10, which signifies we’re calculating a 90% prediction interval. This implies there can be a 5% likelihood the longer term velocity common can be above our prediction interval and a 5% likelihood it is going to be under it. And a 90% likelihood that the typical future velocity can be inside the vary we’re calculating.

The second parameter T.INV.2T wants is the variety of historic iterations you might have minus one. Now we have ten iterations of knowledge, so we use T.INV.2T(.10, 9). That ends in a price of 1.83.

Let’s fill these numbers into our equation:

We additionally know h, the variety of historic iterations of knowledge, is 10. And let’s assume this crew is being requested to look forward 5 sprints, which is the worth for f. Placing these values into the equation we get:

From right here, it’s simple to resolve the remainder of the equation:

This means that over the following 5 iterations, this crew’s velocity may be predicted at someplace between 29.4 plus and minus 5.68. Including and subtracting, we get that velocity can be from 23.72 to 35.08.

We wish to do our agile estimating in entire numbers. Use your judgment on whether or not to spherical up or down for every estimate. I’d say 23.72 is shut sufficient to 24 that I’m going to spherical that up. The 35.08 is so near 35 that I’m positively rounding it down.

In case you felt compelled to be very conservative in your reply you could possibly all the time spherical each down.

At this level, we are able to say there’s a 90% likelihood the crew’s future velocity can be between 24 and 35.

Forecast with Confidence—Entry the Plan Visualizer

The Plan Visualizer is now available contained in the Agile Mentors Neighborhood.

You should utilize it to:

• Set lifelike expectations with stakeholders—visually present what’s achievable given your agile crew’s velocity.
• Experiment with scope vs. timeline trade-offs—rapidly modify dash counts and scope to search out viable options.
• Enhance planning accuracy—forecast future velocity utilizing statistical modeling, not simply intestine intuition.

In case you be part of the Agile Mentors Neighborhood, you additionally get entry to:

• A non-public neighborhood of agile professionals with whom to collaborate, study, and troubleshoot challenges
• Lean Espresso occasions
• Planning Poker® Device with limitless customers
• A rising library of agile assets

You’ll get full entry to the Plan Visualizer and a community of agile consultants that can assist you make smarter, data-driven choices.

Be a part of right this moment and begin planning with confidence. Click on right here to search out out extra concerning the neighborhood.

Final replace: March tenth, 2025