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The world is in the midst of a structural reset—one the place world capital can now not faux geopolitics, local weather, and industrial coverage are background noise. From liquefied gasoline to lithium, from superior chips to synthetic intelligence, the foundations of the worldwide financial system are actually strategic terrain. It’s on this second—when buyers are attempting to kind hype from threat, narrative from actuality—that Jefferies funding financial institution is internet hosting a lineup of consultants who deliver unusually grounded perception into China’s position within the subsequent part of worldwide competitors and decarbonization. The occasion is titled: US China Summit – Understanding Geopolitical Rivalry & Strategic Priorities. This isn’t a postmortem. It’s a map of the place the fractures are forming and the place alternative, resilience, or failure might comply with. I’m honored to be among the many audio system.
Shaun Rein will open the occasion with a session titled “Will Sanctions and Tariffs on China Work?” and few are extra certified to deal with that query. Because the founding father of the China Market Analysis Group and a longtime advisor to Western multinationals navigating China’s client and regulatory panorama from his house base in Shanghai, Rein has argued persistently that U.S. financial strain campaigns are basically miscalibrated. In his ebook The Warfare for China’s Pockets, and in frequent interviews with Bloomberg, CNBC, and others, he’s emphasised the home power of Chinese language consumption, the Celebration’s potential to soak up and redirect strain, and the counterproductive nature of Western sanctions. He’s not defending Beijing—he’s explaining why it isn’t folding. For buyers, Rein’s perspective is an antidote to wishful considering. When you’re nonetheless hoping that tariffs will drive provide chains out of China or set off political realignment, Rein is prone to supply a sobering however obligatory recalibration.
I not too long ago contrasted Rein’s most up-to-date ebook, The Break up: Discovering the Alternatives in China’s Economic system within the New World Order with a Chinese language mainland senior economist’s not too long ago, highlighting that China just isn’t what the dominant western narrative, particularly that within the USA, says it’s.
Following Rein, Joanna Lewis will take the stage to debate “China’s Inexperienced Industrial Coverage.” Her tutorial work has mapped this area for years. As a Provost’s Distinguished Affiliate Professor at Georgetown and a lead writer on the IPCC’s Fifth Evaluation Report, Lewis is likely one of the most revered Western analysts of China’s renewable power technique. Her ebook Inexperienced Innovation in China dissected the best way China constructed its wind energy sector—not simply technologically, however institutionally—and he or she’s continued to analysis how state-led industrial coordination has underpinned the nation’s cleantech dominance. She’s spoken on the Asia Society, suggested the Vitality Basis China, and repeatedly proven how China’s method blends scale, coverage certainty, and world ambition. What Lewis brings to this dialog is not only description however sample recognition. She helps buyers perceive why Chinese language photo voltaic and EV corporations are exporting at margin-killing costs and the way that’s not a market failure—it’s a market technique.
Dr. Michal Meidan will prolong that logic in her session on “China’s Previous and Future Vitality System.” Because the Director of the China Vitality Analysis Programme on the Oxford Institute for Vitality Research, and a longtime analyst of China’s power safety posture, Meidan brings depth and nuance to what’s usually an oversimplified story. Her work spans Chinese language oil coverage, unbiased refining dynamics, and most not too long ago, the month-to-month evolution of China’s coal, gasoline, and renewables steadiness. In her previous roles at Eurasia Group and Vitality Features, she persistently emphasised the duality of China’s power technique—speedy clear power deployment paired with cussed reliance on coal. In her current public commentary, she’s highlighted the strain between short-term reliability and long-term decarbonization, particularly as China prepares to lean on home fossil belongings for power safety whereas persevering with to dominate clear tech exports. For buyers watching commodity markets or infrastructure funds, Meidan’s contribution will probably be important in understanding the place the danger curve lies.
Later within the morning, I’ll converse to the provision aspect of this method: how China turned the world’s dominant refiner and processor of essential minerals for each protection and clear expertise. From lithium and cobalt to uncommon earths and graphite, China controls 60% to 90% of worldwide midstream mineral processing capability. This isn’t only a clear power story—it’s a geopolitical chokepoint, and one which’s proving tough to diversify round. In my very own writing and evaluation, I’ve laid out why Western efforts to rebuild mineral provide chains are working into fundamental constraints: allowing delays, capital shortage, refining know-how, and the brutal timeline mismatch between political cycles and industrial growth. My discuss will lay out the place we’re, what’s sensible within the subsequent 5 years, and why China’s position in minerals isn’t going away anytime quickly.
Dr. John Helveston will comply with with a presentation titled “Competitors vs Collaboration Throughout Clear Tech: Is Reshoring Attainable?” Helveston is uniquely certified to reply that. As an assistant professor at George Washington College specializing in EV adoption, clear tech coverage, and China-U.S. industrial comparisons, he brings information, not dogma. His landmark comparative research of electrical automobile preferences in China and the U.S. helped clarify why China’s EV market scaled so rapidly—and why American consumers had been slower to shift. Extra not too long ago, his analysis has targeted on clear tech manufacturing dynamics and coverage suggestions loops. Helveston is skeptical of simplistic reshoring narratives. In previous op-eds and tutorial commentary, he’s argued that world clear tech success has relied on distributed provide chains, not nationwide self-sufficiency. He’s prone to body reshoring as expensive, incomplete, and—at greatest—selective. For buyers betting on U.S. battery crops, photo voltaic gigafactories, or IRA-fueled manufacturing, his perception will present important floor fact.
After lunch, consideration will shift from power to expertise with Reva Goujon’s discuss on “Semiconductor and AI Competitors.” At Rhodium Group, Goujon leads China company advisory and has lengthy been one of many clearest voices linking geopolitics with industrial and technological threat. Her time at Stratfor, the place she led world intelligence and strategic forecasting, sharpened her potential to mannequin how states behave when expertise turns into a nationwide safety asset. She’s been writing about China’s semiconductor ambitions for years, and in current Rhodium briefings, she’s parsed how export controls, funding screening, and AI governance battles are reshaping company technique. Goujon doesn’t deal with the chip warfare as a one-off coverage spat—it’s a structural break with a long time of worldwide tech integration. Her discuss is prone to join semiconductors with AI methods, mental property coverage, and the rising bifurcation of digital infrastructure. For buyers in superior manufacturing, cloud infrastructure, or AI software program, understanding the implications of this divide will probably be essential.
Closing the day is Michael Mehling with “Nice Energy Competitors: Local weather, Commerce, and Geostrategic Rivalry within the US.” Mehling operates on the intersection of regulation, coverage, and local weather economics, with roles at MIT’s Heart for Vitality and Environmental Coverage Analysis and the College of Strathclyde Regulation College. He’s been a key advisor on carbon pricing frameworks and has written extensively on the interplay between local weather coverage and worldwide commerce guidelines. Lately, Mehling has emphasised how industrial coverage instruments—carbon border changes, inexperienced subsidies, clear power credit—have gotten devices of strategic affect. He’s additionally warned that with out coordination, these instruments may spark a commerce warfare amongst allies, complicating the already fragile world decarbonization effort. On this session, he’s prone to discover how U.S. and EU local weather commerce insurance policies impression world flows of metal, cement, batteries, and hydrogen—and whether or not a multipolar local weather regime can maintain collectively underneath rising strain.
This occasion comes at a second of inversion: when what was once assumptions are actually dangers, and what was once noise—mineral flows, carbon coverage, allowing timelines—are actually sign. For world buyers, the message is evident. The longer term isn’t simply formed by technological innovation. It’s formed by who controls the inputs, who writes the principles, and who can execute coverage with coherence and scale. China is central to each a kind of levers, and understanding how and why is now not non-obligatory. It’s foundational. This occasion presents not only a analysis however a framework for motion—and one which, if taken critically, may assist keep away from the costliest misreads of the approaching decade.
This occasion is just open to Jefferies’ purchasers, so attain out to your consumer contact for those who haven’t obtained an invitation already. I’ll share my slides, speaking factors and the questions that had been requested, simply as I did with my final Jefferies consumer presentation on the way forward for electrical technology.
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