Zen 5 gross sales haven’t gone properly in any respect. AMD is struggling to promote Ryzen 9000 CPUs, and that is having a flow-on impact throughout the remainder of the CPU market. Now that we’re a few month on from the launch of Zen 5, it is time to check out what impression it is had, the tendencies we’re seeing in CPU pricing, and the kinds of CPU offers you’ll be able to count on.
Nobody is shopping for Zen 5
By now, you are in all probability aware of how desktop Zen 5 has been obtained when it comes to its efficiency. These processors simply aren’t that spectacular for workloads you’d usually count on to run on a shopper platform.
Having spoken to a number of retailers for the reason that launch of Ryzen 9000, this has had a disastrous impact on gross sales. In Australia the place I reside, this has been the worst Ryzen launch for the reason that very begin of Ryzen, with unit gross sales so sluggish that it is exhausting to imagine the numbers we had been instructed.
One retailer instructed us a Zen 5 gross sales determine shortly after launch that was within the single digits, and one other instructed us gross sales had been a tiny fraction of what they noticed with Zen 4 at launch. These are retailers that usually see 1000’s of CPU gross sales round launch, even for pretty underwhelming product traces. The response to Zen 5 domestically has been customers trying elsewhere for his or her processor wants, normally to Zen 4 or older generations.
We’re seeing comparable gross sales figures from retailers in different areas, like Mindfactory (Germany). Their public information reveals the Ryzen 7 9700X has bought round 160 items since launch a month in the past, with comparable figures for the Ryzen 9 9950X. The 9600X has seen about 60 items bought, and the 9900X about 80 items. These are comparable numbers to the Ryzen 5 7600X3D, a product with little fanfare that has bought about 40 items simply days after launch.
Again on the launch of Zen 4 (Ryzen 7000 sequence), Mindfactory gross sales information after per week of availability confirmed cumulative gross sales of 850 items. With Zen 5, we’re half the overall unit gross sales throughout the identical variety of obtainable CPUs, however this time after a complete month of availability, not only a single week.
In each situations, this isn’t factoring within the gross sales of X3D processors, that are usually extra standard. So, this places into perspective how underwhelming Ryzen 9000 gross sales have been and the way sluggish they’ve been to maneuver relative to earlier generations. Half the gross sales in a 4x the time shouldn’t be good.
And what’s a bit humorous about this example is that two years in the past, we made a video about Zen 4 Ryzen 7000 gross sales a few weeks after launch, saying that gross sales weren’t good and that nobody was shopping for these processors.
In hindsight, these gross sales now look good for a brand new AM5 technology, particularly factoring within the excessive motherboard and reminiscence costs at launch, in addition to needing to persuade individuals to do a full platform improve.
With higher platform prices and extra individuals already on AM5 which may have thought-about an improve, there aren’t as many boundaries to entry, making the context round Zen 5 gross sales even worse comparatively. There is no such thing as a doubting that Zen 5 has vastly underwhelmed.
One other dire scenario for Zen 5 is seen within the Amazon best-selling CPUs record.
Zen 5 is tough to seek out on this record. The most well-liked product proper now’s the Ryzen 9 9950X sitting within the thirty second spot. The 9700X is in thirty seventh place, the 9900X in 54th place, and the 9600X is within the 87th spot. Two of those fashions are much less standard than the seven-year-old Core i7-7700K.
In the meantime, we have now the bottom Zen 4 lineup sitting within the 2nd, 4th, Thirteenth, and 14th spots, with the X3D elements rounding out the highest 4. Amazon tells us that Intel Thirteenth and 14th technology processors are extra standard than Zen 5, regardless of their well-known stability points, with elements just like the 14900KF and 13900K sitting increased within the record than the preferred Zen 5 processor.
Affect on Zen 4 CPU pricing
Zen 5 being a flop has had a noticeable impression on CPU pricing for different fashions. One of many unlucky uncomfortable side effects has been the Ryzen 7 7800X3D not solely getting dearer but in addition changing into tougher to seek out. Demand for this CPU sharply elevated after Zen 5 efficiency numbers got here in, and a few retailers have struggled to maintain it in inventory.
Within the first half of 2024, particularly after the center of February, in most cases you had been in a position to purchase a 7800X3D for between $350 and $370, and in Could and June, there have been constant gross sales pushing it right down to $340. Since July, the 7800X3D has jumped again as much as $400 at retailers like Newegg, with the bottom value being round $370. There is a comparable value pattern at Amazon, first-party pricing.
This value enhance appears to be largely remoted to the 7800X3D. The 7950X3D, for instance, is $550, a typical value that we have seen throughout 2024 exterior of some small gross sales home windows that pushed it to $500.
The excellent news is that pricing for non-X3D Zen 4 processors has really improved for essentially the most half for the reason that launch of Zen 5. The most cost effective mainstream and broadly obtainable mannequin, the Ryzen 5 7600, has dropped from $190 to $200 within the lead-up, to only $180 right this moment. The Ryzen 7 7700X value has stayed largely flat with a small pattern downwards, although we’re starting to see flash gross sales at some retailers that briefly drop it to $220 or beneath, an important deal when you can seize one at that value.
Ryzen 7 7700X pricing pattern during the last yr
Greater core rely fashions have additionally seen regular decreases. The Ryzen 9 7900X was usually a $380 CPU three to 6 months in the past. Extra not too long ago, it is fallen to $340, and hopefully, that value will likely be sustained.
The 7950X pattern is attention-grabbing, priced at $490 within the months main as much as Zen 5, rising in the beginning of July earlier than creeping down once more over time to now sit at $500.
What we’re but to see is AMD being tremendous aggressive a method or one other to maneuver CPUs. There is no such thing as a indication that AMD is attempting to filter out Zen 4 inventory to make room for a Zen 5-only lineup at inflated costs; there’s solely been the occasional flash sale and no issues round availability other than the favored 7800X3D. The proof suggests AMD is comfy promoting Zen 4 alongside Zen 5, even when that cannibalizes Zen 5 gross sales.
We’re additionally not seeing any vital value corrections to Zen 5 but, which is sensible – we’re solely a month after launch, which is normally too quickly for main value drops.
In our opinion, Zen 5 wants substantial value adjustments to make it extra aggressive, and understanding how AMD likes to regulate pricing because the product ages, it is solely a matter of time earlier than Ryzen 9000 elements get cheaper. However proper now, the 9600X and 9950X are at their MSRP, the 9700X is about $20 beneath, and the 9950X about $25 beneath. Yeah, some elements are a bit of cheaper, however nothing that may make a purchaser genuinely contemplate Zen 5 over Zen 4.
And that is the principle downside the Ryzen 9000 lineup faces and can proceed to face for months. Zen 4 fashions are merely far more enticing, given how comparable in efficiency the most recent CPUs are.
For instance, the 7950X has been obtainable for not more than $550 for a lot of the final six months, and at $500 proper now, it simply does not make sense to spend 25% extra on the 9950X. The 7900X is presently over $100 cheaper than the 9900X and has been $400 or much less for the reason that begin of the yr, decrease than the 9900X’s $450 MSRP.
Eight-core fashions just like the 7700X have been about $280 to $300 for months now, so the 20% premium to get the Zen 5 model is unattainable to justify. And there is simply no method you’d contemplate paying $280 for a Ryzen 5 9600X when the Ryzen 7 7600 is $180 and has often been obtainable for $200 or much less for the reason that begin of the yr.
Till Zen 5 and Zen 4 attain value parity or thereabouts, perhaps with a small premium for Zen 5, we simply do not see how these CPUs promote in vital numbers. It is all properly and good that Zen 5 has a robust structure for server workloads and contains glorious AVX-512 efficiency, however basic shopper workloads do not make the most of the architectural developments proper now.
The vast majority of desktop and DIY gross sales go to both avid gamers or individuals doing on a regular basis shopper duties, and Zen 5 simply does not supply sufficient for these prospects to justify any form of value premium.
That is additional compounded by the 7800X3D providing the very best gaming efficiency, and it was all the time fairly unlikely that baseline Zen 5 CPUs would match or outperform Zen 4 X3D (regardless of what AMD claimed).
AMD’s technique to take care of Zen 5’s positioning in opposition to their very own elements just like the 7800X3D is a bit uncommon. We all know that avid gamers purchase quite a lot of Ryzen processors, however there is no compelling Zen 5 half for avid gamers. They do not supply efficiency management, they usually additionally do not supply worth or an enchancment relative to present elements. Zen 5 merely needed to supply one or the opposite and slot in as a component that is excellent for many who did not wish to spend $350 on the quickest gaming CPU within the 7800X3D.
For those who did not wish to go all out on an X3D half, the subsequent most suitable option within the AM5 lineup is the sub-$200 Ryzen 5 7600. Debuting the six- and eight-core fashions designed for mainstream customers at costs which might be unattractive in comparison with the 7800X3D and 7600 shouldn’t be a profitable technique.
We guess AMD is completely satisfied to promote you any of their Ryzen processors and does not actually care whether or not it is Zen 4 or Zen 5, however we might have thought if you are going to spend the assets and energy to manufacture a brand new CPU technology, you’d in all probability wish to guarantee it is sensible in not less than some elements of the market – in any other case, why hassle? Simply preserve discounting your present elements over time and name it a day till a worthwhile enchancment comes alongside.
Are Intel CPU stability points affecting gross sales?
The opposite attention-grabbing factor to have a look at out there proper now’s the worth of Intel processors. You’d suppose that with vital unfavorable consideration round stability points with Thirteenth- and 14th-gen elements, costs would shortly begin to fall as customers cease shopping for them. However that basically hasn’t occurred.
The 14900K has dropped simply $20 from its long-term steady value of $550 seen for a lot of the yr to $530 right this moment. The 13900K remains to be round $450. The 14700K is, we guess, barely cheaper than it was, however to not any substantial diploma. The 13700K is mainly flat. Perhaps you will get a $20 cheaper 14700KF.
Retailers in Australia have instructed us that gross sales for Intel processors dropped off a cliff when the information tales round stability points actually began to warmth up a number of months in the past. However that, mixed with poor gross sales rankings at locations like Amazon, actually hasn’t translated into advantages for the courageous prospects that may really contemplate shopping for an Intel Thirteenth or 14th-gen CPU proper now. Intel has admitted there are issues they’re working by means of however are nonetheless promoting their merchandise for as near full value as they probably can.
So with gross sales dropping away, why have not these elements gotten cheaper? Why are retailers comfy letting them sit on cabinets at unattractive costs? Effectively, the best way it normally works is that the merchandise you see listed at retailers – that stock is already bought. If Newegg purchased a bunch of Core i7-14700Ks when the recommended retail value is $370, there’s little or no margin or room for them to regulate that value with out help or rebates from the producer.
If gross sales all of the sudden come to a halt, they’re caught with the items they’ve already purchased, with the selection to both wait and hope gross sales choose up, take a loss on the half and promote it at a reduction, or wait and hope the producer gives some rebates or incentives to maneuver inventory. In the mean time, Intel is not doing a lot to incentivize gross sales or assist shift inventory, although this might change because the launch of next-gen Arrow Lake elements approaches.
It is also simpler to regulate pricing over time when unit gross sales are increased. Retailers are continually ordering Ryzen CPUs, particularly within the Zen 4 and Zen 3 generations, as a result of they’re in demand. With extra orders, there’s extra alternative for value corrections, much less inventory caught on cabinets, extra up-to-date costs.
AMD can be well-known for offering rebates to retailers throughout CPUs and GPUs every time they resolve to shake up costs to make their merchandise extra aggressive, whereas Intel and Nvidia are usually keener to maintain pricing constant and implement solely the occasional value drop.
What We Realized
Regardless of Zen 5 being a flop and lots of Intel CPUs being exhausting to advocate, the desktop CPU market is not unhealthy proper now. Zen 4 processors are first rate worth for these eager to improve to AM5, with loads of choices whether or not you wish to give attention to efficiency or bang on your buck, even with the 7800X3D being a bit dearer than it as soon as was. AM4 remains to be kicking alongside as properly for these with present motherboards.
Nevertheless, at this stage within the yr, there are some conditions the place it in all probability is sensible to attend quite than leap straight into a brand new CPU buy or platform improve.
For those who aren’t on AM5 but and have an interest within the improve, it is sensible at this level to attend and see what Intel brings with Arrow Lake. We’re anticipating Intel to launch their subsequent technology in October, which is correct across the nook, and who is aware of, it is likely to be extremely aggressive with AM5 CPUs and both be the go-to choice or power extra value changes from AMD.
When new elements are nearly to launch, it all the time is sensible to get all the data in hand earlier than deciding which path to take.
We predict when you’re curious about a Ryzen 7 7800X3D specifically, it is sensible to attend. Not solely is Arrow Lake nearly to launch and may very well be aggressive for gaming, however the 7800X3D is not at its lowest value and can probably come down once more, particularly across the vacation gross sales interval.
AMD can be going to launch Zen 5 X3D elements in some unspecified time in the future, and yeah, perhaps a 9800X3D is not as thrilling because it as soon as was, however that too may change the dialog across the quickest gaming processor and what elements are the very best worth. Whether or not or not Zen 5 X3D comes this yr or early subsequent yr, we’re unsure, however we’re speaking about a number of months both method.
The place it in all probability nonetheless is sensible to think about an improve is when you’re on the AM4 platform and will not be entertaining a platform improve. The 9800X3D and Arrow Lake elements in all probability will not change issues an excessive amount of when you’re eyeing a drop-in AM4 improve to one thing just like the Ryzen 7 5700X3D or 5800X3D.
Pricing for many Ryzen 5000 elements has been constant all through this yr; you may see some gross sales across the vacation interval, however personally, we expect the 5700X3D at round $195 is a good deal.