Lengthy-Time period Tesla Quarterly Gross sales Charts & Graphs — They Sting!

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Final Up to date on: fifth April 2025, 03:06 am

One of many massive tales of the week has been Tesla’s poor Q1 2025 gross sales numbers, with the model dropping 13% yr over yr (after already having a YoY gross sales drop in Q1 2024). That is particularly painful for a corporation that was speculated to be rising 50% a yr on common within the 2020s, based on CEO Elon Musk (although, he’s been quiet about that beforehand constant prediction recently).

Nonetheless, trying on the quarterly and YoY figures simply provides a glimpse of the problem. Placing collectively the long-term quarterly gross sales charts that I’ve been creating for Tesla prior to now a number of years, the issue stood out to me far more. Take a look under and see what you suppose. Someway, the fact of the drop simply hits far more taking a look at these. The drop in gross sales within the context of Tesla’s beforehand gross sales development actually stings.

As you may see within the chart and graph above, Tesla noticed an unprecedented, huge drop in gross sales in Q1 2025. It’s by no means had such a dramatic drop in gross sales — quarter over quarter or yr over yr. In reality, on a quarterly foundation, Tesla has had nearly no year-over-year gross sales drops. So, the beginning of 2025, particularly on the again of a weak 2024, is placing and signifies to many {that a} shut eye must be stored on Tesla gross sales developments in 2025. It’s complete story (traditionally a narrative of development, huge development) could possibly be shifting. Many followers don’t imagine it — or don’t wish to imagine it — but it surely’s a transparent risk and there are just a few massive the reason why it could possibly be taking place and could possibly be the EV story of 2025.

One final notice earlier than sharing the remaining charts: Tesla solely reviews Mannequin 3 & Mannequin Y gross sales numbers collectively and Mannequin S & Mannequin X & Cybertruck numbers all mixed as effectively. We don’t have exact numbers for every mannequin. (That’s been a large gripe for years, and I feel it’s a bit absurd that an automaker of its measurement isn’t extra clear on mannequin gross sales, however it’s what it’s.) Because of this, to create these charts, I’ve to make use of numerous sources and make some assumptions to be able to give you model-specific gross sales estimates. These are simply estimates. We’ll get extra information within the coming month and be capable of higher see how the gross sales break up out by mannequin. Importantly, developing with the estimates for Mannequin Y vs. Mannequin 3 gross sales was particularly troublesome this quarter because of the new Mannequin Y popping out and Mannequin Y manufacturing traces being shut down for a notable time frame to be able to replace them for the brand new Mannequin Y.

Importantly, whereas there’s some excuse for Mannequin Y gross sales being down, Mannequin 3 gross sales additionally seem like down considerably, and there’s not likely an excuse for that! Altering over the manufacturing traces for the Mannequin Y shouldn’t be affecting the Mannequin 3 like this. Additionally, its debatable whether or not the Mannequin Y ought to actually be dealing with such a major decline itself regardless of the manufacturing line disruption. However I feel we actually have to see what occurs within the subsequent quarter or three to make any stable conclusions on developments for that mannequin.

Whereas it doesn’t stand out within the floor with the graph and chart above, when you consider it for a second, the dearth of gross sales from the Cybertruck is placing. This mannequin was supposed to offer an enormous increase to Tesla gross sales, the subsequent avenue for ongoing auto gross sales development for the corporate. However it appears to be a dud. It’s nearly invisible right here, and already apparently going within the incorrect course! Yikes. For that matter, Mannequin S and Mannequin X gross sales are additionally down. That might not be tremendous important to the corporate’s story or funds, but it surely’s not good! Gross sales volumes had already dropped lots prior to now a number of years, however they bought to a concerningly low stage in Q1. (And, once more, there’s no first rate justification for this, in contrast to the case Tesla followers and shareholders have been making for the Mannequin Y.)

Now we’ve bought the cumulative gross sales charts. This primary one, utilizing official numbers, reveals a shift from exponential development to, doubtlessly, a flattening of development. Simply visualizing the place issues go from right here, it’s simple to see the road on the high getting flatter. After all, that may change with a surge in gross sales from the brand new Mannequin Y (and/or Cybertruck). However, for now, we now have an apparent breaking of the historic pattern — even taking a look at this cumulative gross sales chart.

Utilizing our estimates for the Mannequin 3 versus Mannequin Y gross sales break up, it’s an identical story — only a bit much less pronounced trying on the Mannequin 3 chart, which isn’t traditionally as spectacular because the Mannequin Y’s.

Does anything vital stand out to you when taking a look at these charts and graphs? And the place is Tesla going from right here?

To wrap up, under are interactive variations of those charts and graphs, in addition to one further chart the place you may pop from one mannequin to the subsequent. Get pleasure from! (Observe: these are greatest seen and performed with on an actual pc, not a telephone.)