Hydrogen for Power Serves Fossil Gasoline Pursuits Not Local weather Change or Financial system

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The long-running seminar collection for India’s utility professionals via the India Sensible Grid Discussion board closed with hydrogen. The hype glitter is beginning to tarnish, however there may be nonetheless plenty of substance-less shiny noise across the molecule. To that finish, I stepped via the challenges and why hydrogen is nearly all the time a costlier selection than current, commercialized alternate options for vitality functions.

The video presentation is embedded beneath, and a flippantly edited transcript with slides follows.

Reji Kumar (RK): Good morning, good afternoon, good night to all of the members and it’s our subsequent version of this webinar. We’re comfortable to schedule. Now that is on hydrogen. So lots of you might have seen a number of waves of hydrogen, possibly for the final 30-40 years, completely different waves of hydrogen. And the hydrogen economic system, folks have been speaking about it for the reason that Eighties, so none of them grew to become very profitable. Billions of buyers’ {dollars} have gone down the prepare. There are answers, there are applied sciences, however not competing with different current applied sciences. And presently the final wave of hydrogen we began about 5 years in the past, a whole lot of billions of {dollars} have been dedicated for inexperienced hydrogen which shall be constituted of renewable vitality via electrolyzers and that hydrogen shall be compressed to -260 diploma centigrade and transported to completely different places for various use circumstances. Sounds very vitality inefficient.

If you happen to take a look at the full vitality within the worth chain of hygiene manufacturing, together with transportation, folks speaking about operating, the truth is experimented operating trains, hydrogen trains in absolutely electrified tracks, issues have gone to that extent. We don’t know who’s guiding these items, who’s investing in these applied sciences. And all inexperienced hydrogen manufacturing has, via electrolyzer, concerned essential minerals that are quick in provide. The initiatives which have been dedicated and initiatives for which funding has been dedicated to finish. And people electrolysis, the uncommon supplies which shall be produced within the subsequent 50 years, is probably not ample. And one other examine which Barnard had completed early this yr says that nearly 99% of the initiatives that are introduced, there aren’t any patrons as a result of it’s very costly.

So he’ll take us via as we speak within the webinar in regards to the precise economics and dynamics of inexperienced hydrogen. Over to Michael.

Michael Barnard (MB): Thanks, Reji, and as all the time, thanks to the ISGF as properly for permitting me to take part in a small means in aiding the nice nation of India to search out that path that features each prosperity in your, for all and local weather motion.

So that is an fascinating cowl web page. It’s a grade seven pupil. He’s making hydrogen in a college lab as a result of that’s in regards to the age, grade seven, round twelve years previous, the place youngsters make hydrogen in class. And this results in plenty of misperceptions. The misperception is, properly, if youngsters can do it’s low cost, it’s straightforward, and due to this fact it’s going to scale and develop into economically viable instead. They let it on fireplace. They see the vitality. Sadly, that leads an entire bunch of individuals down a backyard path. That is truly a canopy graphic from a brief story of a devoted hydrogen vitality researcher that I wrote, which went via each single small backwater of hydrogen and confirmed why all of them had been uneconomic and unviable in comparison with alternate options.

So I’m going to spin you thru a few of the framing slides from that illustration. Often anyone says, properly, you missed x. And I’m pondering, no, I didn’t. I spent plenty of time taking a look at each a part of hydrogen, partly as a result of it’s fascinating, partly as a result of why are we spending a lot time on it, together with this seminar, when it’s not match for goal? Now, notice, that’s hydrogen for vitality, not hydrogen for industrial feedstocks, which it’s. Final framing piece. Hydrogen as we speak is a local weather change downside on the size of all aviation. We use it to refine oil, we use it to make fertilizer, we use it to make methanol, we use it to do a bunch of different stuff. And hydrogen as we speak is a large carbon bomb.

And so we have now this actual disconnect between fixing a local weather downside versus fixing different local weather issues. So I’m going to start out out with. I’ve created these framework charts. They’re simply little framework charts. They’re quite simple. They’ve a, you understand, continuum. On this case, it’s costly, which goes to be a recurrent theme versus cheaper, and so they have soiled versus clear. So after you take a look at every of those charts, simply have a look on the labels to see what the measurement is. And so that is manufacturing hydrogen. It’s problematic. You already know, we are able to have soiled and low cost, soiled and comparatively low cost hydrogen. Simply bye. Utilizing steam reformation of pure fuel, or coal fuel, the 2 major strategies, or oil, even any hydrocarbon, to separate the hydrogen out and make a bunch of carbon dioxide, which will get made into the environment.

And that’s nonetheless. That’s the most cost effective hydrogen that exists, and it’s 99.9% of all hydrogen manufactured as we speak. Now, we are able to add carbon seize to steam reformation, however that makes it fairly a bit costlier. Then there’s one thing referred to as pyrolysis, which is definitely thermolysis, as an knowledgeable within the know-how advised me not too long ago, the place we put methane right into a sealed chamber within the absence of oxygen, and we warmth it up, and it turns into three tons of black carbon and a ton of hydrogen. So it’s actually a producing mechanism for black carbon, which we don’t want that a lot of, however but once more, costlier than steam reformation of methane. However it’s cleaner. Pure fuel pyrolysis, whereas a useless finish, in addition to many of the others, is problematic.

After which we even have low carbon electrolysis. In precise low carbon electrolysis, we are able to’t simply use grid electrical energy, as a result of grid electrical energy isn’t clear sufficient to make it truly decrease carbon than simply making hydrogen from pure fuel utilizing the dirtiest mechanism, the grid electrical energy. What we require is a trifecta of additionality. Additionality, which implies we add the identical quantity of vitality within the type of renewables to the grid close to the. That we want. For the hydrogen, we want temporality, which implies the renewables are producing electrical energy concurrently the hydrogen is required, after which we require locality, which is the hydrogen. The renewables are in the identical area of the grid because the hydrogen is being manufactured.

The rationale for these three necessities is that if we take a grimy grid, like proper now in Europe, Poland continues to be utilizing plenty of coal. It has some insufficient plans to get off of them with nuclear, however. And it’ll ultimately study that it wants plenty of renewables. If folks made hydrogen in Poland utilizing the grid and simply constructed a bunch of wind farms and photo voltaic farms in Spain, the hydrogen manufactured in Poland would nonetheless be filthy, and it might add necessities for electrical energy in a excessive carbon grid, which might be met by carbon sources. That’s why the three causes are there, and so they add challenges when it comes to doing this proper now, it’s an issue for a lot of issues. Then there’s white hydrogen. Proper now, there’s plenty of hype about geological sources of hydrogen. However there’s sources, after which there’s confirmed sources. The truth that there’s some hydrogen down there doesn’t imply that it’s recoverable economically, and it doesn’t imply it’s recoverable economically.

And within the volumes which might be required, the most important ones which were recognized are simply not that huge, and so they’re unproven sources. There’s an estimation of how a lot hydrogen is in there, however that doesn’t imply we are able to get well it. To present you a examine and distinction, one of many frequent methods that’s used within the oil and fuel business is enhanced oil restoration, the place we put carbon dioxide down a tactile oil properly to unlock an entire bunch of the unrecoverable useful resource that’s in there. Similar factor with hydrogen. It is available in a wide range of varieties underground. We don’t know the way a lot we’ll be capable of get out of it. And most of these sources aren’t anyplace close to the place hydrogen is required. That’s an issue.

So type of the subsequent downside with hydrogen is definitely storing it. The extra this one’s dense versus diffuse, an enormous downside with hydrogen, and cheaper versus costly. The massive downside with hydrogen is it’s one of many least dense gases within the universe. It’s proper down there. It’s simply the molecules don’t wish to be very shut collectively. They separate and scattered like a pack of kittens you set down, and so they simply all run in several instructions. As a room temperature fuel, it’s extremely diffuse. It’s comparatively low cost to retailer, however you possibly can’t retailer very a lot of it. And that is type of an issue. You all the time hear the factor. Effectively, it’s extremely vitality dense, however that’s by mass. Sadly, hydrogen isn’t vitality dense by quantity. And the amount is problematic as a result of we are able to’t think about a hydrogen automotive. We will’t tow a zeppelin balloon just like the Goodyear blimp stuffed with hydrogen behind a automotive. We’ve got to compress it down.

And in order that will get to the conventional course of, which is pressurizing it to 350 to 700 atmospheres of strain in particular tanks designed for that, utilizing particular compressors. And this can be a downside space that most individuals don’t take into consideration. Most individuals don’t take into consideration compressors, however compressors have gaskets and internals, and the upper the pressures, the extra exactingly they should be machined, the higher the tolerances should be. The costlier the supplies should be. And the extra, the smaller the molecules that they’re compressing, the upper. The extra. The costlier the supplies, the costlier the tolerances, the costlier the machining. And so hydrogen, as a result of it’s such a diffuse fuel and requires such excessive pressures, truly has the costliest compressors round for 700 atmospheres of strain. These items are non trivial equipment.

I did an evaluation of California’s hydrogen refueling stations, and so they had been seeing important failures, 50% of which had been associated particularly to the compressors. Failing gaskets go on compressors for hydrogen on a regular basis and have to get replaced. They’re not low cost. They’re probably the most costly elements on this course of. They’re up there when it comes to expense with the very costly storage mechanisms, with the very costly storage mechanism we’re taking a look at right here. So this nonetheless isn’t very dense. A Toyota Mirai has nearly 5 kilograms of hydrogen, the vitality equal of about 5 gallons of gasoline in a tank, at 700 atmospheres. It’s fairly a exceptional testimony to security engineering that none of them have exploded like a kinetic bomb. So it’s fairly fascinating. So folks have been searching for different alternate options. Liquid natural hydrogen carriers have been found and been round for a very long time.

They lock hydrogen into one thing that’s extra dense, a liquid, and it’s costlier, and it’s sluggish to get in, it’s sluggish to get out, and it’s extra energetic necessities. Equally, liquid hydrogen, chilling it right down to about 20 levels above absolute zero, is viable and we do it, but it surely’s additionally costlier. It creates higher density. However then you might have one thing which is 290 levels beneath what we take into account a snug temperature. Effectively, though I’m talking to an viewers in New Delhi the place 30 levels Celsius is taken into account a snug temperature. So it’s 300 levels beneath what you take into account a snug temperature, and it boils off, and it’s extremely problematic. Then we get to steel hydride storage, the place it locks it right into a steel substrate, and that’s much more costly and extra problematic when it comes to getting the hydrogen out and in.

Every of those will increase the quantity of vitality required to do that. For instance, liquid hydrogen, about 30% of the vitality that’s saved as liquid hydrogen is. Is required to show hydrogen into liquid hydrogen. So that is a part of the issue. Each time we open up a part of the issue of hydrogen, it simply will get increasingly more costly to unravel the issues. And there’s increasingly more issues. There are answers, however they’re not low cost options. And expense issues as a result of hydrogen is competing with different alternate options. It’s competing with direct grid tied electrification. And, you understand, for these, I’m certain all the folks on this name know that India is on observe to have its heavy freight rail absolutely electrified with overhead wires. This yr, Reji talked about rail. Effectively, guess what? We’ve been electrifying rail instantly for over 100 years. That is trivial know-how.

We all know methods to do it. We all know methods to ship the vitality that means. Hydrogen doesn’t have a play there, and but folks make the assertion. Equally for automobiles, batteries, or warmth pumps, et cetera, et cetera. They usually’re all less expensive. All these approaches which might be alternate options to hydrogen are less expensive and extra dependable than utilizing hydrogen.

So there’s shifting it round. Transferring your hydrogen round as a result of it’s as soon as once more so diffuse is one other place the place it’s costly. The one low cost solution to transfer hydrogen round is to ship the feedstocks, water, and electrical energy, within the case of inexperienced hydrogen, pure fuel, within the case of unabated grey hydrogen, to the place the hydrogen is required. And to be clear, 85% of all hydrogen consumed globally as we speak, about 100 to 120 million tons we manufacture, 85% is manufactured on the level the place it’s used.

And that’s as a result of shifting it round is basically costly. The subsequent least expensive means is hydrogen pipelines, and that is nonetheless cheaper, by the best way. I’ll simply say that making hydrogen the place it’s used, we use none of it for vitality as we speak as a result of alternate options, together with simply utilizing electrical energy instantly, are nonetheless cheaper on a per. You already know, decide your. Decide your unit of vitality on a per BtU, on a per MMBTU, on a per megajoule, per kilowatt hour. It’s all the time cheaper to make use of the pure fuel or the electrical energy instantly relatively than make hydrogen after which use the hydrogen for vitality, you understand, that’s why, you understand, the mass majority of hydrogen automobiles on the planet as we speak are utilizing grey hydrogen, and it’s costing them anyplace from $15 to $35 per kilogram to replenish. It’s simply not low cost. However hydrogen pipelines exist.

There are a few of them in Germany, within the industrial space, the place they go from a steam reformation facility to a plant, and there’s some in america the place they go from steam reformation crops to refineries. However these hydrogen pipelines in Germany carrying fossil hydrogen, that’s unabated, they’re charging $6 to $8 US per kilo for that. And that’s the most cost effective hydrogen that may exist. The pipelines aren’t very lengthy. They’re industrial scale pipelines carrying industrial scale volumes of hydrogen, and but it’s nonetheless $6 to $8 per kilogram for that hydrogen. After which we get into different increasingly more costly methods to maneuver hydrogen round. Hydrogen tube vehicles, mainly carrying pressurized gaseous hydrogen. Effectively, you want about 14 of them to hold as a lot as a diesel gas tube truck, and that’s simply not a possible or life like solution to ship hydrogen.

Liquid hydrogen tankers, liquefying hydrogen and placing it in tanks that drive on roads with faculty buses, is definitely being significantly proposed. And to be clear, we do it, however we do it in very particular circumstances the place we want liquid hydrogen as the one factor that can work. And really specifically skilled folks ship that at excessive price. Then there’s the proposal of the liquid hydrogen provider, liquid natural hydrogen provider tankers, whether or not that’s, you understand, ammonia or one thing else, you understand, another provider. And I simply hold stepping on the energetic amount of these items. It simply will get very costly.

I labored out that if we shipped ammonia, for instance, it might be 9 occasions as costly per unit of vitality for Japan because the coal it’s supposed to exchange. That’s with dust low cost hydrogen. And each good thing about the doubt is simply costly to ship hydrogen. So we don’t do it as we speak, and we’re not going to do a lot of it tomorrow. Then there’s hydrogen tanker ships, the place folks suggest to liquefy hydrogen and put it in tankers, and anyone’s demonstrated that it’s simply extremely costly. I labored out that it might be 5 occasions as costly for transport as liquid pure fuel in a single case. So that is type of the issue. It’s less expensive to ship electrical energy to locations than it’s to ship hydrogen to locations. And the wires largely exist already the place we really want vitality, we have to beef them up. We have to beef up the transformers and converters, however that’s simply the character of the beast.

Then there’s security and the way we truly use hydrogen. You don’t hear many tales, though some, about hydrogen failures.

One of many huge causes is that largely we make hydrogen the place it’s utilized in industrial settings, the place folks know methods to use hydrogen safely, and so they have hydrogen sensors, and so they have all kinds of security procedures. However even there, I feel it was Linde, one of many huge hydrogen suppliers in Europe, not too long ago had just a little little bit of a security downside. You might need heard about it just because there’s plenty of information lately about folks not with the ability to get hydrogen. So hydrogen fleets being suspended, like hydrogen trains in Germany are unable to run as a result of they’ll’t get hydrogen. Hydrogen vehicles and hydrogen faculty buses and hydrogen automobiles are begging for hydrogen as a result of there’s no hydrogen. And why?

Effectively, as a result of a tanker of gaseous hydrogen in a Linde plant that was being full of hydrogen for supply to a fueling station, had what’s referred to as a deflagration occasion, which is a subsonic explosion. Principally, it caught fireplace and exploded, which is an issue with hydrogen, extra so than with diesel or gasoline. They usually had some harm that blew out plenty of home windows inside a big radius and broken a few of the facility. In order that they needed to shut it down and so they needed to recall all of the tube tankers security checks. And in order we get from right here, protected up right here, protected, making hydrogen the place it’s used unsafe, just about all the pieces else is questionable, viable versus unviable when it comes to utilizing hydrogen as an vitality provider. So liquid hydrogen, liquid hydrogen, truck refueling.

You already know, Daimler is exploring this with Linde in Europe, and it’s only a foolish concept. Transferring liquid hydrogen round in vehicles to place into different vehicles, to drive round on highways to hold Kleenex is simply not a wise concept. After we can simply use electrical energy and batteries, that’s vastly safer and far much less more likely to explode. I simply learn an evaluation of 1 proposal for a liquid hydrogen for a hydrogen refueling station in Europe, the place they superimposed the security setbacks for people lives not being misplaced and important infrastructure harm not occurring as two radiuses round this factor, and appeared on the variety of residences and buildings round that. And but this proposed hydrogen refueling station security wasn’t even a requirement of the remit. Hydrogen is a extremely explosive fuel. We use it industrially, in massive portions, the place we have now particular security measures in place.

And like many harmful substances, we all know how to try this. We all know how to try this in industrial settings with extremely skilled folks, not in fuel stations and never round different folks. We don’t put huge quantities of ammonia beside a college. We shouldn’t put huge quantities of hydrogen beside a college both.

Hydrogen for constructing warmth. That’s only a weird idea. I simply spent 90 minutes speaking with one of many world’s specialists on pure fuel in houses, and pure fuel leaks on a regular basis. He. He’s the chair of the World Carbon Challenge, which yearly produces the emissions and budgets for all greenhouse gases, their carbon price range, their methane price range, and now they’ve a hydrogen price range.

And a part of his analysis traditionally has been to measure pure fuel home equipment in residences to see how a lot methane is being emitted, but additionally what number of different pollution are being emitted. Now, the methane leakage is already important. Methane slippage from issues that burn methane, you understand, unburnt methane popping out of issues that are theoretically burning it, is kind of excessive, however methane truly doesn’t explode that simply. It solely explodes simply sufficient that 4000 buildings a yr are considerably broken or destroyed in pure fuel fires and explosions in america. Now, 4000 towards a constructing inventory for a rustic of 330,000,000 folks, possibly that doesn’t sound like a lot, however hydrogen, per the perfect evaluation obtainable with security measures, can be 4 occasions as more likely to have explosions and unsafe situations as methane as a result of the molecule is smaller. You already know, our infrastructure that’s delivering fuel to houses isn’t designed for tinier molecules than methane. And hydrogen is simply the Houdini of molecules. It likes to get out of locations. It likes to embrittle stuff.

Equally, hydrogen security, placing 20 diploma Kelvin hydrogen within the fuselage, the place it might be required due to the character of aerodynamic balancing contained in the fuselage with human beings, is only a recipe for a catastrophe. It’s simply very tough to sq. the security of human passengers with liquid hydrogen as a gas. And but persons are significantly reporting it. It’s a kind of circumstances the place it’s uncertifiable and certification and aviation is essential. So whereas there’s plenty of dialogue about it it’s simply not going to occur.

And ammonia as a transport gas. That’s a recipe for catastrophe as properly. Ammonia, which is one nitrogen, three hydrogen, burns cleanly, which is to say it burns with out emitting greenhouse gases, however with plenty of nitrous oxides. Ammonia, because it sits, is poisonous to people. And when it mixes with water, which ships are round, it turns right into a extremely corrosive substance, which, if we breathe, will destroy our lungs. After which after that, it turns into a distinct substance, which is simply unhealthy for human well being and for wildlife well being. So ammonia as a transport gas, as a hydrogen vitality provider, is a non starter. It’s a ship that received’t float. And it’s simply exceptional to see the quantity of consideration that it will get. So security is a priority and it provides expense.

We will do any of these items with an inexpensive diploma of security and limitless lack of human life. However it prices an terrible lot greater than alternate options to attain security with these applied sciences, which provides to the dearth of viability, then, for floor transportation, costly, cheaper, inefficient, environment friendly.

Let’s simply take a look at the alternate options right here up right here. Hydrogen gas for trucking. Effectively, hydrogen gas for trucking. As soon as once more, we’re seeing $15 to $35. That’s for grey hydrogen delivered to vehicles.

The refueling stations in California are an abject lesson. They’ve 55 refueling stations for public automobiles. And people refueling stations as of 2021. I did the evaluation of their highest use, most mature interval that was public file, which was six months in 2021, after 5 to 6 years of operation. And I discovered that the hydrogen refueling stations had been out of service for 2000 extra hours once they had been pumping hydrogen.

Hydrogen refueling stations fail steadily as a result of it’s exhausting to retailer and pressurize hydrogen. As soon as once more, these compressors go commonly. This provides to the price. The price of delivering hydrogen to refueling stations is a really important addition to the price. Farming of vitality did a examine and mentioned the price of simply delivering hydrogen by tube truck to a refueling station would add $8 to $10 to the price of the hydrogen. So it doesn’t matter what it prices to make the hydrogen, it doesn’t matter what it prices to pump the hydrogen, and to take care of the price of the low reliability of refueling stations. It’s $8 to $10 per kilogram simply to get the hydrogen to the refueling station. It’s as soon as once more non viable.

Hydrogen buses have related issues. I did an evaluation of California’s bus fleet as a result of they’ve been experimenting with this. There are pockets of irrationality round hydrogen. Their hydrogen buses are 50% much less dependable than their diesel buses and twice as unreliable as their battery electrical buses. Diesel buses shall be out of service for x hours. A hydrogen bus shall be out of service for x hours occasions 1.5. So one and a half occasions the hours out of service as a result of they’re simply not working. Gasoline cells are finicky issues. A gas cell requires pure hydrogen at a selected time, you understand, fairly temperature, with no pollution like water or different substances. It requires pure air. It requires air that’s bone dry and freed from pollution.

Reaching that in a bus or a truck that drives via metropolis streets with all of the particulate matter and all the air air pollution in cities, it has to filter that right down to hospital grade working theater air high quality and temperature to ensure that the gas cell to not degrade and fail quickly. Buses in Spain that had been delivered, properly, unintentionally, some coolant from one other a part of the drivetrain obtained into the gas cells and destroyed the gas cells totally. And the buses have by no means moved. So there’s 5 buses, I neglect town in Spain, it’s not Barcelona, it’s one of many different ones, however they obtained buses and so they’re simply sitting there. They’re bricks. This can be a downside with hydrogen. It’s simply exhausting to make issues work. We will do it, however they’re much less dependable than alternate options. And reliability provides cash.

Hydrogen powered trains, similar factor. I’ve talked about trains, mainly. Overhead wires, batteries for the bits that may’t be completed. It simply is sensible. India is to this point forward of the remainder of the world, even forward of China on electrifying trains, that I received’t speak about it.

And naturally, down right here we have now the alternate options. Effectively, can we have now battery energy vehicles? Sure, and we do. Can we have now battery electrical buses? Sure, and we do. Can we have now electrical trains? Sure. They usually’re environment friendly and cheaper. And so, you understand, as soon as once more, it’s a contest. Hydrogen isn’t the one solution to do most issues, and it’s actually not the one solution to do issues in vitality. And each time we ask the query, we have now to say, what are the alternate options? Are they economically advantageous? And the reply is all the time sure.

Then there’s maritime transport, one other purported space. So costly, cheaper, viable, unviable. Again to ammonia powered transport. I’ve talked about this. It’s nuts. Then there’s liquid hydrogen powered transport. I’ll say this. I spend plenty of time trying on the maritime business. I spend plenty of time speaking to maritime professionals about repowering stuff. I’ve been flown to Glasgow to debate maritime decarbonization. I’ve spoken to folks on the Maersk McKinney Institute for Maritime Decarbonization. Folks from the Wallenius group simply interviewed me for what must be completed round maritime transport. And I’ve obtained a projection of maritime transport decarbonization via 2100. I’m removed from knowledgeable, however I’m pretty deep on this topic. And the factor I’ll say is a bunch of assume tanks are speaking about liquid hydrogen and the maritime business is ignoring liquid hydrogen. Yeah, they’re not silly.

They take a look at it and go, wait, you need us to do what with that stuff? And also you need us to energy ships with that? That’s simply foolish, man. Like possibly Maersk does it and we discover out that it’s low cost. However till then, please go away. No person is utilizing liquid hydrogen to energy ships. And but assume tanks hold proposing it.

Methanol as a transport gas. Methanol is mainly wooden alcohol. It’s a kind of alcohols that if you happen to drink it, you go blind and die. So don’t try this. And it’s a reasonably frequent industrial substance as we speak and a local weather change downside as we speak. And it does burn modified ship engines like an alcohol would. It’s truly okay, but it surely’s solely about 45% the vitality density of maritime variable sulfur gas oil. It’s costlier, so it’s competing with alternate options. And the alternate options embrace battery powered transport.

Proper now there are a few 700 unit container ships crusing the Yangtze on thousand kilometer routes which might be operating on batteries. They’re batteries in containers which might be winched out of the ship, placed on shore to be charged, plugged in, similar to fridge automobiles. Fridge containers and charged fridge charged battery containers are winched onto the ship and plugged in simply the identical means fridge containers. Reefers are as we speak. And batteries are slowly taking on the underside finish of transport. They usually’re going to all inland transport, most quick sea transport. My projection is that battery hybrid transport with biodiesel will take over all the house for batteries. We’ll run the ships in ports and nationwide waters to attenuate air air pollution and noise air pollution for all of the residents and the marine life close to shore and crossing oceans. They’ll burn biofuels.

And the biofuel, I count on, shall be biodiesel. There’s arguments which might be cheap to recommend that we’ll find yourself with methanol, biomethanol as a transport gas, however we actually received’t find yourself with methanol synthesized from inexperienced ammonia. Biomethanol is less expensive than methanol synthesized from inexperienced ammonia. So we’re not going to finish up utilizing synthesized methanol or any synthesized gas. It simply doesn’t make any sense as a result of it’s costlier and no person’s going to pay extra for one thing which doesn’t do extra. And artificial methanol doesn’t do greater than biologically sourced methanol.

So aviation, costly, cheaper, certifiable, uncertifiable. Now, certifiable doesn’t imply they’re loopy. It doesn’t imply we’re placing them into an asylum to help them to get well their psychological well being, to search out the proper temper stabilizers and prescription drugs and discuss remedy to help them to reintegrate with society.

It implies that operators can fly an authorized machine with human beings within it as a industrial service, or they’ll fly machines with packages inside them as a industrial service over locations the place there are folks. So all the pieces above tiny plane needs to be licensed. Should be licensed by nationwide aviation boards. Most aviation boards globally respect and undertake a certification. If the FAA does it or EASA does it, then many simply respect and undertake these and say the nationwide certification boards undertake these. I might say if there are any aviation folks on board from India related to India’s equal of the FAA, it’s best to actually rethink grandfathering FAA licensed planes as a result of the FAA was captured by Boeing, and it’s only a actual downside space proper now in aviation. However certification is required, and it’s costly.

It’s an n-times-n course of that claims it’s a must to manufacture, design planes in a sure means, manufacture planes in a means that’s protected, after which take a look at all of the failure situations in an n-times-n means in flight checks to show {that a} aircraft received’t fall over the sky and kill folks. The Boeing Max disasters that killed a whole lot of individuals had been a failure of certification as a result of Boeing captured the FAA through the years. However as we undergo these, battery powered aviation is simple. We all know the failure situations of batteries and batteries to electrical motors have nearly no shifting components. An n-times-n certification course of for a quite simple plane, like a battery, electrical one is less expensive than a extra advanced one.

Biofuelled aviation simply replaces kerosene that’s used as we speak with biologically sourced kerosene that’s truly very easy to certify as properly, as a result of it’s only a frequent pathway, the identical molecules, completely different sources, and each main, producer, civil aviation plane, is certifying their planes on certifiable aviation, unsustainable aviation gas that come from biofuels as we speak. We similar to, take a look at the frequent carriers. They’re all doing it. We’re bunkering, you understand, hundreds of thousands of tons of biofuel, sustainable aviation fuels as we speak.

Now, up right here, efuels. That is artificial kerosene constituted of inexperienced hydrogen after which mixed into making the attributes of kerosene. Kerosene being a type of a classifier of attributes, not an actual particular chemical system. And you are able to do that. It’s simply actually costly. It’s straightforward to certify as a result of it’s precise, it’s nearly an identical to the jet gas that’s used as we speak. It’s simply as certifiable as biofuel powered aviation.

However it’s simply going to be actually costly. Biofuels are two to a few occasions as costly as present fossil fuels. Typically, e fuels are 4 to 6 occasions as costly. And if a provider has the choice between, if it’s pressured to pay two to a few occasions, that’s one factor, however they’re not going to pay 4 to 6 occasions if they’ve a two to a few occasions price various. So let me recover from into stuff that simply doesn’t make any sense. Hydrogen fuel and liquid hydrogen. The failure situations are so excessive and the design transformations for aviation are so excessive to keep away from failure situations resulting from these issues, simply make it a non viable to certify.

I’ll say that the certification folks have to be having a area day, as a result of usually they’re over right here in rather well trodden pathways, they’re filling in checklists which were crammed in a whole lot and 1000’s of occasions earlier than. Over right here, on daily basis they discover a new means for an airplane to go increase or fall into the sky and kill lots of people, and so they should give you checks to validate that it received’t happen. That’s an thrilling factor for the certifiers to do, which is why the certification companies are spending a lot time on it. However that doesn’t imply it’s going to result in certification for plane. So you will get actually costly, uncertifiable plane, or you will get plane that look loads like those as we speak, and battery electrical ones, and get there and remedy the local weather downside.

So then there’s warmth. I’ll simply say that burning hydrogen to make warmth works. No person does it as we speak as a result of it’s actually costly. There’s some stuff it’s a must to change that traits of the flame are completely different. You need to change a bunch of stuff. That’s all simply pretty minor engineering, but it surely’s costly. In the meantime, folks say, what about excessive temperature warmth? Effectively, electrical plasmas, we have now the temperature of the solar underneath our management with commoditized know-how we are able to ship as we speak and combine into warmth. Electrical arc heating, we already use that for metal manufacturing. EMF heating, resistance heating, as much as 600, 800 levels Celsius. I talked to the previous chief technical officer of Kanthal, now the EVP for international enterprise growth, a few years in the past. Yeah, their product is only a resistance heating component that goes to 600 to 800 levels.

Thermal storage, now infrared heating. We’ve got district heating and cooling. We’ve got warmth pumps. Each single vary of heating might be completed with electrical energy. It is probably not trivial or cheap to vary one thing which is designed for fossil fuels to run on electrical energy, however all new amenities must be designed from the bottom as much as run solely on electrical energy. Matter of truth, once I converse to Paul Martin, all of them are. It’s solely when the enterprise case is dedicated that they add fuel the place it’s essential to make the enterprise case. And in order we transfer ahead right into a decarbonized world and carbon pricing applies to fossil fuels, these applied sciences are all there. They’re all industrial as we speak. They’re all fully dependable, commodified issues. We’re simply not utilizing them as a result of burning fossil fuels and utilizing the environment as an open sewer is cheaper. Hydrogen doesn’t have a play right here. It’s simply all the time going to be costlier and loads more durable and loads much less protected than simply utilizing electrical alternate options.

So then grid storage, similar downside, hydrogen grid storage, it’s “I’ve a hydrogen molecule. What else can I do with it?” It’s like having a Swiss military knife. Oh, what does this little blade do? Oh, it’s an extended period vitality storage. Yeah, hydrogen for lengthy period vitality storage. Effectively, no, for shorter period storage, we have now cell based mostly battery grid storage. Big, big market lately. Very profitable. We’ve got redox stream applied sciences, that are commercializing as we speak. I sat on the advisory board of 1. We’ve got pumped hydro, which is rising radically.

Within the grid storage dialogue, I identified how huge the useful resource India was beneficial to the ISGF, that they reopen the examine into grid storage as a result of off river, closed loop grids, pumped hydro grid storage is very easy to construct and it’s match for goal. Then we have now biomethane. We had this huge downside. A part of the explanation I used to be talking to the top of the worldwide carbon venture, Rob Jackson, this week was as a result of we’re emitting huge quantities of excessive international warming potential methane as we speak from our agricultural meals waste stream processes. Rice farming, for instance, India, but additionally meals waste. We throw away a full third of the meals we manufacture yearly that leads to landfills or middens, the place it’s piled, decomposes anaerobically and creates methane. So our land administration processes are produced, for instance, beef cattle and ruminants, with their belching of methane from their digestive processes.

Effectively, the methane from that supply is twice as huge because the methane emissions from the fossil gas business, which have been climbing radically. We’ve got to attenuate our biomethane as a result of it’s an enormous international warming downside. And my principle is we simply seize it at level sources like dairy barns and landfills and different stuff, and we fill our strategic pure fuel reserves with biomethane as a substitute. After which after we want that strategic reserve of fuel, of vitality, we simply burn biomethane. I feel that makes much more sense than manufacturing hydrogen. But when hydrogen finally ends up being the foolish factor, if folks begin manufacturing salt caverns and creating, you understand, coping with all that, it’s the. It’s not probably the most urgent downside.

We’ve got applied sciences for all the pieces, besides we’ve obtained commercialized, generally used, very dependable applied sciences for all the pieces besides strategic vitality shops for lengthy regional outages of wind and photo voltaic.

This all turns into my hydrogen demand projection via 2100. You’ll discover that not like each different hydrogen demand projection you’ve ever seen, it goes down as a result of inexperienced hydrogen is much more costly than unabated grey hydrogen. Blue hydrogen is double the price of unabated present hydrogen. That implies that because the feedstock price goes up for industrial processes, the place we use it, our expectation of utilizing it, folks will discover alternate options. There are alternate options to hydrogen in some circumstances. In different circumstances, there aren’t any alternate options. But when the price goes up, folks will say, properly, how else can I obtain the identical outcomes? Oh, properly, let’s try this.

However much more, take a look at this huge chunk right here, these two classes. The largest customers of hydrogen as we speak are oil refineries. They use it to strip impurities out of hydrogen, like sulfur. They usually additionally use it to crack hydrogen into, or crack crude oil into lighter and heavier parts. The heavier and the upper sulfur, the crude, which is to say Alberta oil sands crude, the extra hydrogen it’s a must to use. For mild, candy crude, it’s a must to use a kilogram or a kilogram and a half per barrel of oil, for Alberta’s product it’s a must to use seven or 8 kilograms per barrel of oil. We’re going to cease extracting and refining plenty of our oil. We’re going to get right down to solely extracting oil for petrochemicals. And the petrochemicals, the oil we’re going to extract is generally going to be lighter, low sulfur, as a result of we have now plenty of oil.

So we’re not going to be consuming almost as a lot hydrogen in oil refineries. And that’s going to occur pretty rapidly. The heaviest, lowest high quality crudes, like Venezuela’s and Alberta’s, shall be first off the market. In order that’s going to plummet. That is fertilizer, the subsequent greatest demand space. And we have now alternate options for lots of fertilizer. Low tillage agriculture requires much less fertilizer. Drone based mostly crop spraying of fertilizers requires loads much less fertilizer. Agrigenetics is displacing fertilizer additions with genetically modified microbes, which exist already within the soil, which already repair nitrogen within the soil for crops. However they’ve a nitrogen sensor. They only flip off the nitrogen sensor, and it simply retains making extra nitrogen on the roots of crops. It’s very environment friendly.

Final time I spoke to Karsten Temme, the PhD geneticist who heads Pivot Bio, they had been on the level the place they had been seeing 1,000,000 acres of corn underneath administration in america, and so they’re lowering fertilizer necessities by 25%. Their purpose is 100% throughout rice, corn, and grain by 2030, stretch goal, however a extremely good sound chunk. So we’re going to be pulling all these levers, as a result of fertilizer goes to get costlier as we decarbonize fertilizer, an enormous local weather downside as we speak as a result of it’s constituted of pure fuel. Pure fuel turns into hydrogen. We put the hydrogen into the Haber Bosch course of to mix with air from the environment to make ammonia to make fertilizer. We’re going to scale back that. So important declining calls for within the greatest supply demand areas for hydrogen.

Metal is a possible space. I’ve presently obtained it there. Making hydrogen, making new metal with hydrogen. Effectively, the hydrogen replaces coal in lowering the iron ore, which de rusts it mainly into iron. That’s all it does. And there’s a requirement level there. However we have now alternate options there which might be direct electrification, Boston Metals and Fortescue utilizing molten oxide electrolysis obtain the identical outcomes with no hydrogen step. And mainly anyplace the place they can’t use hydrogen, as we have now an alternative choice to hydrogen, we’re most likely going to make use of it. It needs to be cheaper. And so proper now I’ve elevated demand for hydrogen for metal making in my projection, however that’s in danger. Ultimately recreation I feel we’re solely going to have 80 million tons of hydrogen that we use in our economic system, versus the underneath 120 million tons that we use as we speak.

We nonetheless have to wash it up. It’s nonetheless an enormous local weather downside space. We nonetheless want all of the work on electrolysis for this market of pricy hydrogen.

That’s it. Let’s discuss. Any questions, Reji?

RK: I might request you to present the newest standing of the introduced inexperienced hydrogen initiatives and patrons, the dedicated patrons and what timber, what proportion of whole initiatives that are financially near initiatives that are underneath some stage of growth or building, and who’ve signed as much as purchase the inexperienced hydrogen. At what value? What statistics do you might have?

MB: So a yr in the past, Boston Consulting Group revealed with Oxford World Tasks a type of a white paper on methods to make inexperienced hydrogen initiatives as low danger as doable. Not low danger, simply decrease danger. They usually included a bunch of statistics, about 1300 initiatives that Boston Consulting Group had of their database. These 1300 initiatives, I feel it was solely 0.7% by tonnage truly reached last funding determination and operation. It was solely 5% by variety of bulletins, however solely 0.7% by tonnages truly reached last funding determination. So we don’t have a state of affairs the place they’re getting via, as a result of as they undergo last funding determination, due diligence, they really should put actual numbers into spreadsheets, not imaginary consensus numbers about low cost hydrogen.

They really have to truly price stuff. After which once they try this, they discover out that hydrogen is pricey, which we’ve identified for a very long time. I simply assisted Professor Joe Romm, who’s working with Michael Mann at College of Pennsylvania with the twentieth version of his guide, The Hype About Hydrogen. Joe Romm did his work 25 years in the past and mentioned, why would we be contemplating this? It’s all the time going to be costly. Bruce McCabe, one other PhD out of Australia, did this work 25 years in the past and mentioned, that is actually costly. As I mentioned, I’m a sluggish pupil. I’ve solely completed the mathematics on this up to now decade, taking a look at completed techno financial workups on hydrogen options for the previous ten years. And each time I do it, hydrogen comes out actually costly.

The value level is fascinating. Boston Consulting Group additionally revealed one thing saying, the consensus of €3 per kilogram inexperienced hydrogen in Europe by 2030 is popping out to not be right. It should truly be €5 to €8 per kilogram. And I agree it’ll be €6 to €8 to fabricate hydrogen. However that’s not delivering it, that’s simply making it. And so, as soon as once more, each time we have now to retailer it, each time we have now to move it, each time we have now to pump it, the price goes up and up. Security stuff provides prices. So after we hear the price level for hydrogen, it’s a must to ask, is it, what’s the price delivered? And the perfect price delivered for shopper functions, for hydrogen, is what’s being paid at fuel pumps world wide, which is $15 to $35 per kilogram. And that’s for grey hydrogen.

It’s not going to get cheaper than that common value level. For all of the offers that had been truly struck final yr, to Reji’s level, the typical value level was €9.35 euro cents per kilogram. And that, as soon as once more, simply to fabricate it.

Okay, we have now one other query. Please clarify why hydrogen use serves fossil pursuits. It’s the title of the presentation, so I’m glad you requested. Michael Liebreich says it finest. The fossil gas business can’t lose by selling hydrogen for vitality, both. Hydrogen for vitality turns into a significant a part of our vitality combine, and we are able to’t make sufficient inexperienced hydrogen in any respect, as a result of it might require vastly extra renewables than we have now as we speak, which might require blue hydrogen, then the fossil gas reserves that the fossil gas business has is the one supply of all that hydrogen.

And in an effort to try this in a considerably low carbon means, considerably not likely, they’d should do carbon seize and the governments must pay them so as to add carbon seize to their hydrogen manufacture. In order that they win that means and their hydrocarbon reserves are good and governments and taxpayers give them plenty of cash. Or the opposite means they win is that they delay actual local weather motion with electrification by one other decade and so they hold pumping their oil, coal and fuel for one more decade with out actual motion. It’s an apparent technique for them. As you take a look at the funding for hydrogen advocacy organizations, what you discover is the fossil gas business is throughout this house. They’re selling hydrogen far past its degree of capability. Do we have now different questions? I do know Puranima Gupta has had their hand up. I’m undecided in the event that they’ve put a query into chat.

What about mixing hydrogen in with pure fuel and current pipelines? This is without doubt one of the nice hopes of the business. We’re going to place methane, we’re going to place pure fuel into current pure fuel pipelines after which we’re going to scale back the CO2 output of burning pure fuel. And it’s going to be nice. Effectively, it’s not. The utmost you possibly can put into pipelines is about 20%, however hydrogen is loads much less dense than pure fuel, so you find yourself with much less vitality at extra price. You solely get a couple of 7% carbon emissions discount from the utmost combination of pure fuel with hydrogen. In order that’s downside one. Drawback two, pure fuel already leaks all over the distribution system. And the older the distribution system is, the extra it leaks.

Amusingly, I used to be speaking with, as soon as once more, the gentleman who chairs the World Carbon Challenge. And he spent fairly a little bit of time in automobiles driving round Boston, Manhattan and Washington with methane sensors searching for leaks. What they discovered is the older components of town that had been probably the most gentrified with probably the most wealthy folks had the best leaks. So it was fairly counterintuitive that it wasn’t an inequitable state of affairs because it usually was. It simply leaks loads. Now, why I carry this up is methane leaks loads lower than hydrogen. So whenever you put hydrogen with pure fuel in a pipeline, any leaks that exist are going to disproportionately leak the hydrogen. And who pays for all of the leaking pure fuel as we speak? Effectively, customers do. It’s undelivered fuel. It’s a part of the expense that utility passes on.

So all that costly hydrogen that goes in with the pure fuel shall be far more costly, it’ll leak much more and also you’ll pay much more. So it’s simply mainly a useless finish. It’s fairly fascinating. So current metal pipelines, can we use the present metal pipeline community for hydrogen transportation or do we want some modifications on the whole? Sure, you want modifications. You are able to do these modifications. The factor with hydrogen is as a result of it needs to be larger strain to ship much less quantity, as a result of as soon as once more, it’s loads much less dense as a fuel. You need to pressurize it loads. And pressurizing causes the pipes to flex. Because the pipes flex, we have now micro fractures within the weld joints of the pipes.

Hydrogen does what methane doesn’t, which is it will get into these weld joints and it bonds with the metals and it embrittles them. And so we have now to truly cut back our pressurization. We will solely get a couple of third of the vitality via the identical pipeline with security. Now we are able to get a bit extra by coating the insides. We’ve got to coat the insides of all of the pipelines with reasonably costly inner coatings. We’ve got to run pigs down them, spray them, take a look at them, and that’s simply to get to the purpose the place we are able to ship a 3rd of the vitality so we are able to do it. However as soon as once more, far more costly than piping pure fuel, and it requires modifications. And the subsequent bit is all these compressors which might be used on the pure fuel pipelines aren’t match for goal for a hydrogen pipeline.

They as soon as once more want larger strain compressors with higher matches. In any other case they’ll leak hydrogen like sieves. So all of the compressors on the pure fuel pipeline have to get replaced after which all of the electronics. Methane doesn’t assault electronics. Hydrogen is basically reactive. It assaults electronics. You truly should get a distinct licensed set of sensors and electronics in your hydrogen pipeline than exist on the methane pipeline. So it’s not a slam dunk. You may’t simply say, I’ve obtained a pipe, I’ve obtained pumps. I’ll simply put hydrogen as a substitute of pure fuel. You may have change all of your compressors. You need to improve all of your electronics. You need to coat the within of the pipeline. And guess what? That each one provides price to ship much less vitality. It’s not a slam dunk. Every other questions?

RK: Madam Puranima Gupta was asking, she continues to be not clear how hydrogen isn’t good to decarbonize? It’s good to decarbonize, offered you may make it cheaper to different applied sciences and likewise the difficulties about storing it and transporting it and general vitality. Inefficient resolution is what Michael defined within the earlier slide. So the webinar recording shall be obtainable in simply two days to all of the individuals who registered. Thanks very a lot, Michael. Good day to you.

MB: Effectively, I’ll add one level to that remark. It’s completely essential to decarbonize all of the hydrogen that we presently use and can proceed to make use of for the subsequent many years as industrial feedstocks. Proper now, that’s a local weather downside we have now to unravel. Inexperienced hydrogen is the reply to it, and that implies that we have now to try this. However that’s the local weather, that’s the decarbonization resolution we have now to work on for hydrogen, which is lowering it from an issue the dimensions of all aviation globally right down to one thing that’s not the dimensions of all aviation globally. So decarbonization and hydrogen don’t consider it as an answer set. Consider it as an issue space that we have now to unravel. So that may be the factor. Again to you, Reji.

RK: Thanks. Good day. Good night. Good night time to all of the members from India Asia area. Good night time.