By Power Innovation’s Modeling and Evaluation Staff
The free and open-source Power Coverage Simulator (EPS) laptop mannequin developed by Power Innovation has grow to be probably the most broadly used instruments to tell policymakers and regulators about which local weather and vitality insurance policies will scale back greenhouse fuel emissions most successfully whereas creating the biggest financial and public well being advantages.
With EPS fashions now obtainable for dozens of nations and subnational areas, together with 48 U.S. states, we’re usually requested how the EPS works and what peer evaluation it has undergone via its improvement.
The EPS is a System Dynamics laptop mannequin created in Vensim, a software produced by Ventana Programs for the creation and simulation of System Dynamics fashions. The mannequin will be run through the free Vensim Mannequin Reader or via an online interface Power Innovation developed. Instructions on acquiring Vensim Mannequin Reader and the EPS can be found on the Obtain and Set up web page and customers can entry the mannequin on-line through the energypolicy.options web site.
Customers can entry superior options or modify enter information by downloading the EPS and operating it domestically on their Mac or Home windows PC. All enter information is meticulously cited, publicly obtainable, and freely accessible and editable. Customers can run the mannequin in Vensim Mannequin Reader and immediately see how modifications in enter assumptions change the mannequin’s outputs.
The EPS is an economy-wide, single area mannequin that runs in annual time steps. It may be configured to run to 2100, although it’s most frequently configured to run to 2050. The EPS consists of bottom-up inventory turnover monitoring in a number of sectors and a profit-maximizing least-cost optimized electrical energy mannequin, together with 24 hours throughout six completely different time slices. It additionally has native value minimization for sure sectors and applied sciences, for instance it selects the bottom value combine of recent automobiles offered in a given 12 months based mostly on demand for brand spanking new automobiles.
The EPS is designed to mannequin dozens of insurance policies affecting vitality use and emissions. The mannequin first builds a business-as-usual case based mostly on enter information and present insurance policies. From there, the EPS permits customers to mannequin any mixture of included insurance policies and to customise the coverage stringency and timelines of these insurance policies. These insurance policies embrace, for instance:
- Renewable portfolio requirements or clear vitality requirements
- Gas financial system requirements for automobiles
- Zero emissions automobile requirements and incentives
- Trade methane requirements
- Incentives for clear vitality applied sciences like these within the Inflation Discount Act
- Accelerated R&D development of varied applied sciences
The EPS options an embedded downstream input-output mannequin that interprets modifications in spending from coverage to modifications in financial outcomes, corresponding to jobs, GDP, and employee wages. Modifications in demand for companies and items that outcome from macroeconomic modifications are fed again into the mannequin on a one-year time delay, permitting the mannequin to regulate vitality demand and emissions based mostly on the financial system’s evolution.
The EPS additionally features a simplified downstream well being module that interprets modifications in health-damaging pollution into modifications in well being outcomes. The well being module depends on benefit-per-ton estimates from U.S. Environmental Safety Company modeling and follows normal practices for changing modifications in emissions to modifications in well being outcomes.
Power Coverage Simulator U.S. NDC coverage bundle results CO2e wedge diagram
Hundreds of outputs can be found within the mannequin, however some key metrics embrace:
- Emissions of 12 completely different pollution together with carbon dioxide, methane, N2O, fluorinated gases, NOx, SOx, PM2.5, PM10, black carbon, natural carbon, carbon monoxide and risky natural compounds.
- Modifications in spending on capital, gasoline, upkeep, taxes and subsidies.
- Direct, oblique, and induced impacts on jobs, GDP, and worker compensation as a complete or disaggregated into 42 sectors.
- Untimely mortality and 10 different averted health-related outcomes from decreased major and secondary particulate air pollution.
- Detailed electrical energy sector data together with hourly demand and provide, technology, capability, and retail electrical energy charges.
- Gross sales and inventory of various automobiles and automobile applied sciences, corresponding to battery electrical, plug-in hybrid electrical, hydrogen gasoline cell, and gas-powered automobiles.
- Power utilized by completely different companies and applied sciences throughout the financial system, damaged down by gasoline sort
- Breakdowns of how every coverage inside a coverage bundle contributes to complete abatement and the cost-effectiveness of every coverage (e.g., wedge diagrams and price curves).
- Gas imports and exports, and related expenditures or revenues.
- Detailed accounting of vitality utilized by 25 completely different trade sectors, together with building and agriculture, finish use (e.g., boiler, low/medium/excessive temperature warmth, machine drive) and gasoline sort.
Core methodologies and constructions within the EPS have undergone intensive peer evaluation as they had been developed, and we regularly search enter from exterior consultants to change the methodologies and deal with issues which might be raised. Elements of the mannequin have been reviewed by people from prestigious establishments together with:
- American Council for an Power-Environment friendly Financial system
- Argonne Nationwide Laboratory
- Lawrence Berkeley Nationwide Laboratory
- Massachusetts Institute of Know-how
- Nationwide Renewable Power Laboratory
- RMI
- Stanford College
- Tufts College
- College of Chicago
- U.S. Environmental Safety Company
- World Sources Institute
Nationwide labs, universities, and companions who’ve peer reviewed the Power Coverage Simulator