How Many Prospects Can Rivian Steal From Tesla?

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Final Up to date on: twenty seventh February 2025, 02:27 am

I used to be at a Tesla Supercharger in the present day, and as I used to be about to depart, I noticed a Rivian R1S linked to one of many Supercharger stalls. This can be a V2 Supercharger station, and my understanding is that no non-Teslas can Supercharger on V2 Superchargers, however I additionally noticed a Mercedes-Maybach EQS attempting to Supercharge at this station final week (seemingly unsuccessfully, however I left earlier than closing affirmation) and routinely have individuals with EV rental automobiles coming by and asking about charging there. So, I walked as much as the Rivian R1S to see how issues had been going and to ask if she was in a position to cost. It turned out it wasn’t working, however she had charged there together with her Rivian a very long time again. What she and I each figured is there was a brief time frame when the stations had been open to any EVs to cost, however now that issues have been locked down with NACS and the software program has been superior to accommodate non-Teslas at Superchargers and observe them, non-Teslas can now not cost at this (or any V2) Superchargers.

Nonetheless, that’s a protracted intro to get to a different subject. Speaking together with her for a couple of minutes, I discovered that she and her husband had owned three Teslas beforehand, however now she has the Rivian R1S and her husband has the Rivian R1T. A pal of hers had switched to Rivian earlier than them.

The primary motive for making the change appeared to be a quite common one — Rivians are simply a lot nicer and extra refined, notably the inside, however in line with this woman, additionally the drive high quality. After I drove and rode in a Rivian R1T a few yr and a half in the past, the a lot nicer inside — together with infotainment screens — struck me instantly. When mentioning it to the proprietor, who was additionally a Rivian worker, he mentioned that was a quite common response from Tesla homeowners.

Moreover, this woman (sorry, I didn’t get her identify), famous with enthusiasm that the R1S additionally price lower than her earlier Tesla Mannequin X! That appeared to be one other main promoting level for her. Lastly, she lives in Tampa, and Rivian had simply opened a service middle in Tampa earlier than they determined to make the change. That was a clincher for her, as she didn’t wish to should go to Orlando for service if wanted, and that may have been the case earlier than the Tampa service middle opened.

She didn’t point out something about politics or Elon Musk, and, sadly, I didn’t ask when she and her husband made the change. Nonetheless, given their expertise with the automobiles and her religion in Rivian executives/administration, she was optimistic the corporate would finally change into worthwhile. In fact, that every one depends on the R2 and maybe even R3. It’s a sizzling subject of debate as a result of nobody actually is aware of what the long run holds for Rivian.

Contemplating all the Rivian professionals above, I simply obtained to pondering, what number of clients might Rivian take away from Tesla? Underneath my article yesterday about Rivian’s inventory value, current shareholder convention name, and professionals & cons, one reader (“Photo voltaic Man“) commented, “Nicely, Rivian could possibly steal Tesla consumers who’re boycotting the corporate because of Musk. I contacted Rivian myself simply final week about shopping for an R1S, however instructed them I didn’t wish to purchase a automotive with out an autopilot that labored on all roads like my 10 yr outdated Tesla can. So … I agree they should get theirs working higher. I disagree it must be pretty much as good as Teslas FSD system although. I’m going to purchase nothing till a non Tesla choice with a very good autopilot is available on the market.”

Now we have seen numerous feedback from longtime Tesla followers, homeowners, and shareholders who’ve sworn off shopping for a/one other Tesla except Elon Musk leaves the corporate. I’ve met others in “actual life.” Tesla noticed its gross sales decline in 2024 in comparison with 2023, and 2025 appears to be beginning out even worse. As Elon Musk will get an increasing number of excessive politically (and, seemingly, spends virtually all of his time engaged on non-Tesla issues), many people anticipate Tesla will lose quite a lot of gross sales. If that’s the case, what number of clients might Rivian take from Tesla?…

How many individuals will take a look at a Rivian from time to time uncover, “Oh, wow, that is actually good!” What number of will now fortunately change due to Supercharger entry? (Whereas the Rivian couldn’t cost at this V2 Supercharger, there’s one other newer Supercharger a half an hour away the place I routinely see different EVs, together with Rivians, charging.) What number of will change as Rivian improves its ADAS (a key speaking level on Rivian’s convention name)? In fact, the massive canine is the R2 (and R3). What number of Tesla clients will bounce ship, or what number of potential Tesla consumers will skip Tesla, as soon as the R2 and R3 can be found? Additionally, how a lot additional is Elon Musk going to go taking a chainsaw to the US federal authorities, busting down Constitutional doorways and democratic norms, and siding with Vladimir Putin over Ukraine and the remainder of the democratic West? How way more is he going to push individuals away from the model? (I virtually requested, “And can the Tesla board do something to rein him in?” However I’m sure the reply is “no.”) The there’s additionally the attraction of the brand new Mannequin Y, the cheaper Mannequin Q that’s supposedly coming, and even the Cybercab. How a lot will Tesla’s gross sales dominance proceed within the US EV market merely because of the attraction of its merchandise, and likewise a lot of the inhabitants not following political issues for even 5 minutes per week or being apathetic to all of it in relation to looking for a automotive?

As you may see, there are quite a lot of unknown elements. I would like you to attempt to synthesize all of these completely and provide you with an estimate of what number of clients Rivian will steal from Tesla. In my opinion, there are too many massive unknowns and I can’t even provide you with a spread of choices you can select from in a ballot. Additionally, since we are able to by no means actually verify the outcomes, one thing about working a ballot on this rubs me the mistaken manner. However I’d like to learn what you knowledgeable, considerate readers should say on this subject and what number of clients you estimate Rivian will take from Tesla.