Debunking the Fable: Hydrogen’s Abundance Does Not Equal Accessibility

Join day by day information updates from CleanTechnica on e mail. Or observe us on Google Information!

Saying hydrogen is considerable is like saying gold is simple to get—it’s on the market, however extracting it’s laborious, costly, and energy-intensive. The issue isn’t shortage; the issue is accessibility.

Hydrogen advocates typically parrot the road that hydrogen is essentially the most considerable factor within the universe, implying that it’s naturally accessible as a clear gas. That is, at finest, deceptive and, at worst, a deliberate try to obscure the numerous technical and financial obstacles to its widespread adoption. The truth is that whereas hydrogen exists all over the place, it’s not in a usable kind. Extracting it requires important vitality, and dealing with it calls for expensive infrastructure.

This can be a companion article to the Cranky Stepdad vs Hydrogen for Power materials. In an identical method to John Cook dinner’s Skeptical Science, the intent is a speedy and catchy debunk, a second stage of element within the Companion to Cranky Stepdad vs Hydrogen for Power, after which a fuller article because the third stage of element.

Saying hydrogen is considerable is like saying gold is simple to get—it’s on the market, however you must work laborious to extract it.

This text critically examines the declare that hydrogen is “available” by dissecting the vitality necessities, manufacturing inefficiencies, and infrastructure constraints that make it one of many least accessible vitality carriers.

The Scientific Actuality: Hydrogen is Not Freely Accessible

The atomic make-up of the universe doesn’t translate to real-world vitality options. Hydrogen doesn’t exist as a free fuel on Earth—it’s certain in compounds like water (H₂O) or hydrocarbons (CH₄, C₂H₆). To acquire pure hydrogen, we should break these molecular bonds, and that course of is neither free nor straightforward.

Ocko & Hamburg (2022) emphasize that whereas hydrogen is theoretically considerable, its presence in a usable kind is nonexistent. The vitality required to isolate hydrogen from compounds is substantial, decreasing its viability as an vitality supply.

The Worldwide Power Company (IEA) studies that over 96% of world hydrogen manufacturing comes from fossil fuels, primarily by steam methane reforming (SMR). This implies the so-called considerable hydrogen continues to be overwhelmingly reliant on carbon-intensive processes.

In line with Glenk & Reichelstein (2019), even below optimum circumstances, producing hydrogen requires huge electrical energy inputs, making it economically impractical in comparison with direct electrification.

Hydrogen abundance is a scientific curiosity, not an argument for its viability as an vitality supply.

Producing hydrogen in a usable kind requires important vitality enter. The 2 main strategies are electrolysis and steam methane reforming (SMR), every presenting elementary inefficiencies.

Electrolysis splits water into hydrogen and oxygen utilizing electrical energy. Whereas the idea sounds interesting, the effectivity downside is big. Electrolysis effectivity charges vary from 60% to 80%, that means not less than 20% of the enter electrical energy is misplaced instantly. Transporting, compressing, and changing hydrogen again to electrical energy through gas cells leads to extra vitality losses. By the top of the chain, over 70% of the unique vitality is misplaced (IRENA, 2022). The IEA (2021) factors out that for inexperienced hydrogen to be viable, it will require surplus renewable vitality, which is briefly provide and higher used for direct electrification.

SMR is the first technique for producing hydrogen, accounting for 96% of at present’s provide. The method depends on pure fuel and emits important CO₂.

The IEA (2021) estimates that 830 million metric tons of CO₂ are emitted yearly from hydrogen manufacturing—akin to the mixed emissions of the UK and Indonesia. Even with carbon seize and storage (CCS), SMR hydrogen stays solely marginally much less carbon-intensive, whereas CCS provides prices and reduces effectivity.

Hydrogen manufacturing is neither free nor inexperienced—it’s both energy-wasteful or fossil-fuel-dependent.

Past manufacturing, hydrogen faces monumental obstacles in transportation, storage, and end-use purposes. Hydrogen is the lightest factor, that means it has low volumetric vitality density. Storing it requires excessive compression (700 bar) or liquefaction (-253°C), each of which require vitality and costly infrastructure (IRENA, 2022). The compression and liquefaction processes alone can devour as much as 40% of the vitality contained within the hydrogen (DOE, 2020).

Present pure fuel pipelines can not deal with hydrogen with out modification attributable to hydrogen embrittlement, which weakens metal infrastructure (IEA, 2021). Changing hydrogen into ammonia or different carriers for transport provides one other 15–30% vitality loss (IRENA, 2022).

Merely put, even when hydrogen have been considerable and low-cost to supply (which it isn’t), getting it the place it must be stays an costly problem.

Advocates of a hydrogen economic system typically ignore the basic financial obstacles. Inexperienced hydrogen prices have been revealed by closing funding selections (FIDs) in 2024, with tasks pricing hydrogen at $5 to $9 per kg. In distinction, fossil-based hydrogen stays at $1 to $2 per kg, and we don’t use it for vitality at present as a result of it’s too costly. Including to the problem, BloombergNEF (BNEF) has just lately tripled its 2050 hydrogen value projections, highlighting that manufacturing prices usually are not falling as shortly as as soon as anticipated. By comparability, electrification—corresponding to battery storage or direct grid use—continues to be considerably extra environment friendly and cost-effective.

Glenk & Reichelstein (2019) conclude that even with declining renewable vitality costs, hydrogen will stay dearer than direct electrification for many purposes. This isn’t new information, as I and others have been pointing this out for years or a long time, with clear value workups explaining why.

Scaling a hydrogen economic system requires trillions of {dollars} in infrastructure—pipelines, storage, refueling stations—which few traders are prepared to decide to when superior alternate options exist (DOE, 2020).

Hydrogen is just not low-cost, scalable, or freely accessible. It’s an important industrial feedstock that requires decarbonization, not the spine of a clear vitality future.

The declare that hydrogen is considerable and naturally accessible is a purple herring designed to obscure its elementary inefficiencies. The info are clear:

Hydrogen should be extracted from compounds at excessive vitality prices. It’s overwhelmingly derived from fossil fuels at present. Even when produced through electrolysis, it suffers huge vitality losses. Transporting and storing hydrogen is dear and technically difficult. The financial case for hydrogen is weak in comparison with direct electrification. Hydrogen has a job to play in hard-to-decarbonize sectors—like metal manufacturing, ammonia synthesis, and long-haul aviation—however as a broad vitality resolution, it fails each sensible check.

As an alternative of chasing the hydrogen mirage, policymakers and traders ought to concentrate on electrification, grid modernization, and battery storage, which provide far superior effectivity and cost-effectiveness. Saying hydrogen is considerable is like saying gold is simple to get—it’s on the market, however you want a fortune to extract it. The clear vitality transition wants actual options, not deceptive narratives.

References

• BloombergNEF (BNEF). (2024). Hydrogen market outlook: Value projections tripled for 2050. BloombergNEF.
• Glenk, G., & Reichelstein, S. (2019). Economics of changing renewable energy to hydrogen. Nature Power, 4(3), 216–222.
• Worldwide Power Company (IEA). (2021). International Hydrogen Evaluate 2021. Paris: IEA.
• Worldwide Renewable Power Company (IRENA). (2022). The Function of Inexperienced Hydrogen in Power Transitions.
• Ocko, I. B., & Hamburg, S. P. (2022). Local weather penalties of hydrogen emissions. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 22(12), 9349–9368.
• U.S. Division of Power (DOE). (2020). Hydrogen Technique: Enabling a Low-Carbon Economic system. Washington, DC: DOE.