Agenda Of Canadian CUTA Transit Convention Reveals They Have Hydrogen On Mind Too

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Globally, there are virtually 700,000 battery electrical buses in operation and maybe 6,000 hydrogen buses. In Europe in 2023, about 6,400 new battery electrical buses have been registered vs. about 140 hydrogen buses. As I famous lately, there have are extra hydrogen bus trials which have been deserted than operational hydrogen bus fleets. And in recent times, it’s turn into clear that hydrogen leaks badly and has a a lot worse world warming affect than beforehand assumed.

So, you’d suppose {that a} a number of day transit convention in Canada’s agenda could be full of battery electrical data, charging data, microgrid insights, battery price curves, and the like, and that there could be one lone hydrogen presentation. Would that this have been true.

I’m conscious of the CUTA Toronto Annual Convention and Transit Present as a result of a bunch of individuals have been asking if I used to be going to be attending. CUTA, by the way in which, is the Canadian City Transit Affiliation, with a membership of transit methods, public our bodies, firms that provide the sector, and consultants in city mobility. The questions have been raised as a result of Canada has been pushed sideways on decarbonizing transit in recent times by one other group, CUTRIC, or the Canadian City Transit Analysis and Innovation Consortium, and I’ve been analysing what has been going fallacious and why.

The massive ticket failure is their situation report for Brampton which assessed a hydrogen-only, battery-only, and blended fleet and really helpful the blended fleet. Between world technique advisor and creator Michael Raynor and I, we recognized $1.5 billion in dangerous modeling and flawed price assumptions in favor of hydrogen and in opposition to battery electrical, dwarfing the $10 million distinction discovered to justify the blended fleet.

The report fails each sniff check of validation in opposition to exterior world expertise, situation modeling, strategic evaluation, and fundamental high quality management.

The convention began yesterday, and so I believed it will be price their agenda to see how the classes stacked up. What number of have been dedicated to hydrogen? What number of dedicated to battery electrical? What number of dedicated to lifeless ends like renewable pure fuel, one other of Enbridge’s favourite greenwashing molecules along with hydrogen, as I wrote about lately as properly, discovering that it was 0.02% of their annual quantity after 13 years of creating it and bragging about it.

Let’s begin with fundamental numbers from counts from the agenda:

• Hydrogen — 26 mentions
• Gas cells — 7 mentions
• Battery or batteries — 22 mentions
• Electrical — 23 however typically in paragraphs that additionally included hydrogen

This appears skewed radically towards the rounding error possibility. Maybe it’s simply within the speaker bios? No.

What concerning the rely on classes centered on hydrogen vs. battery electrical buses?

• Hydrogen — 2 classes, each centered on hydrogen infrastructure
• Battery electrical — 3 classes, one on the fireplace dangers of battery electrical buses, one on fleet will increase with battery electrical buses, and one on experiences and transformation plans
• One panel dialogue that concerned each, hosted by Cummins, the interior combustion engine producer
• One session on getting ready the transit workforce for rising propulsion applied sciences, which solely mentions electrical buses
• There’s a session on vitality administration and vitality as a service which is about a number of vitality streams, not simply electrical energy
• There’s a session on tramways — i.e., grid-connected battery electrical buses
• Nothing on renewable pure fuel, fortunately

That’s … odd. Nothing on electrical bus charging? Nothing on battery buffering for charging? Nothing for photo voltaic on bus yards to allow charging? Nothing about en route charging? Nothing about induction charging? Nothing about methods for route optimization? Nothing about projected development in capability and decline in prices for batteries and therefore battery electrical automobiles? Nothing about incremental bus fleet acquisitions with the longest routes left till battery electrical vary will increase as it’s going to inevitably do? No electrical utility professionals offering steering on grid interconnections? No classes on battery electrical bus upkeep and operations? Nothing on right-sizing batteries to routes, the important thing technique India has used to maximise fleet measurement and reduce prices? Nothing on battery electrical bus procurement methods? Nothing on lobbying provincial and federal governments to get BYD and Yutong factories constructed? Nothing on efficient tendering for battery electrical bus fleets? No strategic consulting corporations speaking concerning the actuality of the huge transformation and the way to make sure applicable steering and assist is in place?

Nothing on the actual greenhouse fuel emissions of hydrogen buses with grey and inexperienced hydrogen, each greater emitters than battery electrical? Nothing about grey hydrogen being virtually as excessive emissions properly to wheel as diesel? Nothing on California’s hydrogen bus fleet expertise, which incorporates 50% greater upkeep prices than diesel and double battery electrical? Nothing on EU’s JIVE program standing report concerning the failure of producers to offer warranties longer than 20 months for hydrogen buses, whereas five-year full elements and repair and eight-year drivetrain warranties for battery electrical buses are widespread? Nothing on the failure of hydrogen refueling globally, between compressor failures and innumerable hydrogen provide chain failures? Nothing on hydrogen bus fleets having decrease vary within the winter time in world experiences? Nothing about hydrogen buses and refueling infrastructure not dropping in worth in any respect? Nothing concerning the very excessive price of delivered hydrogen, whether or not grey or inexperienced, a lot greater than the price of vitality per kilometer than battery electrical?

The battery session that discovered a 34% enhance in fleet measurement with battery electrical automobiles clearly had some challenges in its methodology, or not less than its framing. I discovered the paper the creator is presenting about and it has zero point out of battery vitality density enhancements which are being delivered at present, 650 km ranges from BYD buses being delivered proper now, LFP batteries with 300 kWh/kg vitality densities, vitality density curves, and even, amazingly, the precise vitality density of batteries within the buses studied. It simply seemed on the restricted variety of battery electrical buses presently in operation in Canada, ran some stats, and pretended that in a quickly altering technological house, the previous was a very good predictor of the long run.

It additionally ignores real-world knowledge from hydrogen fleets that exhibits their vary degrades considerably within the winter time too, together with from neighboring Quebec, the place the governmental fleet of principally Toyota Mirais noticed substantial vary degradation, and the expertise from Whistler, BC, additionally a Canadian instance, the place hydrogen buses froze up within the winter time as a result of the water vapor from the gas cell wasn’t thermally managed.

The creator barely research transit, by the way in which, principally being centered on the odd mixture of autonomous automobiles and street capability engineering research, with solely two transit research of their publication historical past.

So, two of the three battery electrical bus classes are about how dangerous they’re — world purchases make it very clear that’s not the case — whereas the 2 hydrogen classes (the ratio ought to be 20 to 1, not 3 to 2) are neutrally framed. Additionally, no point out of the massively decrease probability of pure battery electrical bus fires than diesel bus or hybrid bus fires, or lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries which remove the already low threat of battery electrical bus fires.

An early session was Understanding Hydrogen Purposes, Provide and Infrastructure by a few individuals from New Flyer, the main bus producer in North America. I wrote about New Flyer’s main strategic blunder in getting sucked into the vortex of hydrogen gas cell buses lately as properly. It’s a seductive entice, as every particular person bus has the next sticker worth with 50% paid for by the federal government, however every hydrogen bus bought seemingly means the lack of three battery electrical bus gross sales to BYD, in addition to lengthy tail of sad clients.

New Flyer virtually went bankrupt in 2022, and was bailed out with $200 million in governmental loans and credit. It could’t afford to divide its consideration. It’s going to finish up like lately bankrupt Quantron, which tried to do each battery electrical and hydrogen vehicles, couldn’t do both remotely properly in comparison with rivals, and went out of enterprise. At current, it’s the one recreation on the town for Canadian transit businesses wanting hydrogen buses — as a result of they’ve been misled about each battery electrical and hydrogen buses by organizations like CUTRIC — and one of many solely video games on the town for battery electrical buses, and so these businesses are placing their fleets at better threat. As soon as once more, dangerous technique.

Battery electrical buses are the largest transformation that transit businesses in Canada have handled because the shift to diesel buses within the mid-Twentieth century. There are 66 displays and panels within the three and half days. Most transit businesses have already dedicated to majority or solely battery electrical fleets. There are a whole bunch of battery electrical buses on order.

There are solely three displays associated to the precise decarbonization answer that’s staring Canadian transit businesses within the face, and two of them are unfavorable. This isn’t a smart focus.

This isn’t to say that different classes are dangerous. There are classes on transit security, transit income, funding, asset upkeep, accessibility, and variety.

However when one session is a zombie-apocalypse bus evacuation recreation, and classes on how one can successfully remodel to battery electrical fleets aren’t 25% or extra of the agenda, CUTA has misplaced the plot. At the very least Ballard and Enbridge aren’t presenting, which is one thing.