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Final Up to date on: twenty second March 2025, 12:47 am
On Sunday, I printed an article and ballot asking the place Tesla confronted essentially the most danger — the USA, China, or Europe. To be sincere, after that, I forgot about it. Till earlier right this moment.
Nearly 700 respondents chimed in (thanks for tuning in on Sunday, and for participating with the ballot). The outcome was sturdy and definitive. Greater than half of respondents (59%) thought that Tesla confronted essentially the most danger in Europe.
Second was China, with 25% of respondents pondering that’s the place Tesla faces essentially the most gross sales danger. Maybe the vote for China would have been greater after right this moment’s information, or possibly the dearth of proof indicating Elon Musk was briefed by Donald Trump’s Pentagon on a possible warfare plan for China means China would nonetheless simply get 1 / 4 of the vote. Who is aware of?
In final place was the US, which I discover a bit shocking — till I believe once more concerning the gross sales danger in China and the gross sales danger in Europe. Maybe the US actually is the market the place Elon Musk can get away with extra and shoppers will hold gobbling up Teslas at excessive ranges. Maybe regardless of the fast-growing competitors, we nonetheless lack something just like the EV choices in China and even in Europe, and the Tesla model is so sturdy within the US that it’s going to proceed to dominate the market (one thing it doesn’t do in China or Europe). We’ll see, however for now, solely 16% of respondents picked the US because the market the place Tesla faces essentially the most gross sales danger.
Why was Europe the clear winner? It appears there are a couple of elements that made it the most typical alternative:
- World Struggle II may be very current within the minds of Europeans, way more so than it’s with People, and Musk’s haphazard nonchalance concerning the Holocaust — if not his obvious help for Nazis and household historical past with Nazis — has actually upset a number of Europeans.
- There’s huge competitors within the EV market in Europe, and nobody wants a Tesla.
- The Trump administration’s determination to desert Ukraine, NATO, and European alliances has additionally disturbed a big portion of the European inhabitants, and everybody is aware of Musk is closely aligned with Trump and condoning principally every thing he does, together with all of this. In truth, Musk has made abhorrent feedback about Zelensky and Ukraine on quite a few events.
- Musk has supported far-right political events and propaganda in Germany, the UK, and Italy, additional pissing off a lot of Europeans..
Full disclosure: Initially, I couldn’t vote on the ballot. I usually have an opinion, however I used to be torn between the circumstances for every market and couldn’t decide one. It actually is dependent upon what occurs within the coming months, and I simply couldn’t make sufficient of an informed guess. Nevertheless, one of many feedback did rapidly lean me towards Europe. So, I’ll finish with that remark, from Geoff Willingham:
“Hmmm… in the meanwhile (and clearly that is topic to vary), I believe China goes to be the least-affected by Musks antics within the US… sure, there’s going to be some dislike round Trumps tariffs that can rub off on Musk, and the arising points with FSD in China… however in comparison with the EU and the US, these appear comparatively minor… and the most important risk can be from different firms producing higher / extra fascinating autos… however that can be a steadily decline, not a precipitous drop, imo.
“The US is extraordinarily politicised, and folks there are instantly impacted by Musks actions, however Tesla even have the most important slice of the market, and — as but — there isn’t a lot competitors, so these on the fence or in any other case ‘insulated’ from Musk will most likely find yourself shopping for a Tesla (in the event that they’re contemplating an EV) regardless.
“Thus, I believe the EU could also be on the most danger… we’re instantly feeling the outcomes of his tariffs too (like China), however he’s additionally instantly meddling within the politics of a number of EU international locations, and most international locations within the EU even have a much more visceral dislike (or stronger) of Fascism, in that we needed to reside by means of it in a manner that the US didn’t, simply ~85 years in the past.
“As such, I believe there’s prone to be a a lot stronger response within the EU than China — and in contrast to the US, we even have far better alternative and choices to select from within the EU, plus (in lots of international locations) good options to the SuperCharger community (which was one of many main promoting factors for Tesla even after different fashions hit function and value parity with Tesla EVs).
“As such, I believe the market ‘most in danger’ would be the EU… though that’s as a share of its at present gross sales… whether or not it’s additionally most in danger when it comes to whole gross sales (relatively than as a share of present gross sales), I’m not so certain — however I believe it seemingly (for the explanations outlined above).
“However, all that is contingent on Musk not doing one thing tomorrow that critically alienates a much bigger slice of the US (and/or actually hits house for the Chinese language, and so forth).”
Certainly. Geoff lined his bases nicely on the finish there, too. Total, although, I believe his prolonged argument captures why Europe so dominantly gained the ballot. We could examine the 2025 outcomes to the 2024 outcomes and declare an precise winner subsequent January?
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