EVs At 22.5% Share In France — Citroën e-C3 On High

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Final Up to date on: third March 2025, 07:33 am

February’s auto market noticed plugin EVs at 22.5% share in France, down from 26.3% 12 months on 12 months. BEVs had been successfully flat YoY, while PHEVs misplaced share. Total auto quantity was 141,568 items, roughly flat YoY. The Citroen e-C3 was France’s finest promoting BEV in February.

February noticed mixed EVs at 22.5% share in France, with full battery electrics (BEVs) at 17.9% and plugin hybrids (PHEVs) at 4.6%. These examine with YoY figures of 26.3% mixed, 18.1% BEV, and eight.2% PHEV.

The plugin market is presently nonetheless irregular, formed by a mid-February supply deadline to efficiently qualify for the 2024 eco-bonus (which is considerably lowering thereafter). As we famous final month, the PHEV market is now dampened by a weight tax which has been utilized to the category for the primary time from January 1st 2025, making the year-on-year comparability look unfavourable.

We should look ahead to the tip of Q2 for these uneven coverage influences (each this 12 months, and within the YoY baseline) to disperse, and likewise for the brand new Tesla Mannequin Y (virtually 10% of the French BEV market in 2024) to reach in first rate volumes. The mid-year may also doubtless see the additional ramp up of the extra reasonably priced BEVs (R5, e-C3, Inster, Panda) to greater volumes, and the arrival of the likes of the Citroen e-C3 Aircross, and Renault 4.

In the meantime, what’s left of the plugless market continues to maneuver over to the short-term repair of extra mild-hybridization and extra HEVs, such that combustion-only powertrains proceed to fall.

Diesel-only noticed quantity drop from 10,221 to six,707 YoY (down a 3rd), and share at beneath 5% for the second consecutive month. Petrol-only quantity fell from 48,075 to 35,110 YoY (down 27%) and share of beneath 25% for the second time (following December ‘24). Until there’s some one-off pull-forward of those powertrains, it’s onerous to see diesels climbing again over 5% and petrols may also quickly (by H2 this 12 months) persistently be beneath 25%.

Greatest Promoting BEV Fashions

The Citroen e-C3 was the very best promoting BEV in February, with 3,058 items, a sliver forward of the Renault 5 (3,034 items). This was the Citroen’s first time within the high spot since October.

The Tesla Mannequin Y took third place, with 1,738 items.

The Citroen e-C3’s sturdy volumes have now established it firmly within the high 3 over latest months, vying with the Renault 5, and Tesla Mannequin Y. As soon as the Mannequin Y refresh ramps within the subsequent few months, we will count on it to take a powerful lead within the final month of every quarter, and the Renault prone to sometimes outcompete the Citroen for the highest spot within the remaining months.

Keep in mind, that these extra reasonably priced fashions (the Citroen and Renault) significantly profit, as a proportion of their worth, from the eco-bonus (in comparison with costlier fashions). The Citroen particularly noticed a powerful pull-forward forward of the mid-February deadline for the (greater) 2024 bonus, and won’t doubtless maintain these month-to-month volumes (not less than within the quick time period). See the evaluation of the wonderful Raphaëlle Baut for extra on this. To place it merely, it should doubtless be the Renault and Tesla that are repeatedly competing for the highest spot by the center of this 12 months. That’s, until Citroen has an enormous manufacturing ramp (and maybe a worth trim) within the works.

The array of different faces within the high 20 are not any nice shock, though some fashions put in notable performances. The Volkswagen ID.3 noticed its highest volumes since June, with 822 items (once more, maybe in a pull ahead forward of the eco-bonus deadline). Likewise with Cupra Born, at 679 items, even edging forward of its earlier peak in June.

Since debuting at low quantity late final 12 months, the brand new Alpine A-290 has stored climbing, with February seeing a brand new excessive of 480 items, breaking into the highest 20 for the primary time (sixteenth spot), however once more, this can be as a result of bonus deadline. The brand new Kia EV3, which debuted round an identical time, has additionally stepped up, although stays simply exterior the highest 20 for now.

As typical, we sadly don’t have the depth of gross sales knowledge to identify the preliminary debuts and early climbs of recent BEV fashions. However let’s preserve an eye fixed out for the Hyundai Inster, the Fiat Grande Panda, and later this 12 months, the Citroen e-C3 Aircross, and Renault 4. Any of those might enter the highest 20 sooner or later later this 12 months.

In the meantime, right here’s a have a look at the trailing 3-month chart, which smooths out the month-to-month variations:

The brand new Renault 5 has now firmly established itself within the high spot, after three very sturdy months. The Renault has already overtaken the Tesla Mannequin Y’s 2024 month-to-month averages, however the latter’s imminent refresh might slim that hole a bit. Each are compelling autos in their very own proper, however the mass-market worth section of the Renault clearly exposes it to larger general demand.

Aside from the Renault now climbing up from third within the earlier interval (September to November), there’s little motion within the high 11. The one exception is the Dacia Spring, which has come again to first rate quantity since November. Evidently Renault Group has determined to soak up the heavy hit to the Spring’s margins from bonus-exclusion and tariffs.

The Audi This autumn e-tron, in 14th, has seen its strongest ever 3 months in France, with a change in quantity which is somewhat uncommon for an older (and premium) mannequin. Was there a pointy price-cut late final 12 months? Please tell us within the feedback, when you’ve got insights.

Search for the Alpine A-290 to doubtlessly be part of the highest 20 within the coming couple of months (until February was only a one-off stretch to seize the eco-bonus).

Outlook

The flat YoY auto market not less than exhibits some stability, and is a greater end result than the standard YoY drop which has attended 10 out of the previous 12 months. The broader French economic system has slowed down, with This autumn YoY progress in GDP of simply 0.6% – its weakest YoY progress since 2020. Inflation cooled to 0.8% and rates of interest are at 2.9%. Manufacturing PMI improved to 45.8 factors in February, up from 45.0 in January.

With an irregular baseline (because of final 12 months’s social leasing scheme), new PHEV taxes, and an eco-bonus deadline – we will’t but level to a constant sample rising in 2025. As I discussed in final month’s report, we will count on the EU area as an entire to see BEV share within the vary of 20% to 22% for full 12 months 2025, as a result of tighter emissions guidelines.

Most legacy producers are nonetheless doing “as little as legally doable” to construct BEVs, and the general market is formed by regulation, not innovation (with some exceptions). The legacy producers may also prioritise their BEV provide into international locations that also provide some buy incentives (permitting them to successfully cost a better sticker worth), relative to these international locations which have none (taking a look at you Germany). France might land on the upside of this equation, and 2025 can’t be worse general than Europe’s backsliding in 2024.

What are your ideas concerning the French EV market? What fashions are you looking out for, or do you count on to be hottest this 12 months? Please leap into the feedback part under and be part of the dialogue.