EVs Take 21.6% Share In France – Renault 5 Again In The Lead

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November’s auto gross sales noticed plugin EVs take 21.6% share in France, a drop from 25.0% 12 months on 12 months. Many of the drop got here from weak PHEV efficiency, while BEV share grew barely YoY. Total auto quantity was 114,673 items, down over 6% YoY, and much from pre-covid seasonal norms (round 150,000). The brand new Renault 5 was the most effective promoting BEV in November, reclaiming its latest interval of management from the Tesla Mannequin Y.

January’s auto gross sales totals noticed mixed plugin EVs take 21.6% share in France, with 17.4% full battery-electrics (BEVs) and 4.2% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These evaluate with YoY figures of 25.0% mixed, 16.4% BEV and eight.6% PHEV.

A tumble in PHEV quantity YoY (from 10,545 all the way down to 4,852) meant a halving of PHEV share, and a giant dent in mixed plugin share. The PHEV drop got here largely because of the comparatively new weight-based auto taxes now being utilized to PHEVs from January 1st (in 2024 they got a waiver).

In a shrinking total auto market, BEV quantity took solely a fraction dip (lower than half a p.c), a lot better than the typical 6.2% dip. Thus, BEVs improved their market share barely YoY.

The largest beneficial properties had been seen for plugless HEVs and mild-hybrids, which stepped up massively from 26.6% to 44.9% share YoY. Producing gentle hybrids seems to be the primary strategy that legacy auto markers are taking within the French market, to satisfy 2025’s tighter emissions guidelines. Will this be sufficient? In all probability not by itself, however transferring to MHEV powertrains is the quickest and least expensive short-term technique to cut back emissions (by about 10%) for those who’re a legacy auto maker caught within the ICE-age.

As we noticed with the tightening of emissions targets in each 2020 and 2021, we’ll possible see BEV volumes from legacy auto begin to improve extra steeply in direction of the top of 2025 to satisfy this 12 months’s tightened targets.

As a tough information, the French auto trade foyer, the PFA, is suggesting that BEVs could must get near a mean share of twenty-two% this 12 months. Since there are some fudges allowed, the PFA’s “onerous to get to 22%” narrative could also be a sob-story to push for extra handouts, however definitely round or above 20% BEV share appears possible.

With BEVs barely growing in share, PHEVs down, and plugless hybrids up significantly, ICE-only powertrains noticed a steep YoY drop in share in January, as we’d anticipate in an emissions tightening 12 months. Diesel-only quantity fell by 48% YoY, to 4,956 items and a file low share of 4.3%. Petrol-only quantity fell 28% to 29,974 items and a near-record low share of 26.1%.

Greatest Promoting BEV Fashions

With solely a quick interruption in December, the brand new Renault 5 has held the highest spot for two of the final three months. Its January quantity was 2,813 items.

The brand new Citroen e-C3 additionally did nicely to seize second spot with 1,548 items, although was a way down from its ranges in September and October. The Renault Scenic took third, with 1,177 items.

Seven out of the highest 10 finest sellers had been from French (or French owned) producers, primarily Renault Group and Stellantis. There have been no nice surprises right here, however we did see the comparatively new Kia EV3 be a part of the highest 20 ranks in France for the primary time. I’m personally glad to see the Dacia Spring — nonetheless Europe’s most inexpensive BEV in most nations —  now solidly again into the highest 10 over the previous three months, regardless of quite a few hurdles and boundaries being positioned in its manner.

There’s an echoing narrative going round within the French auto media that Tesla’s January volumes “collapsed” 63% YoY, which sounds thrilling and dramatic, however is a distorted perspective which intentionally removes all context. One facet of that context is that the January 2024 baseline noticed 6x higher-than-normal volumes of the Mannequin 3. Why? This was a pull-forward forward of BEVs from exterior Europe dropping entry to buy incentives from mid March 2024. The opposite context is that the Tesla Mannequin Y refresh continues to be not fairly but delivering in quantity in France, and lots of potential Tesla consumers are possible ready for that.

Little question Tesla will could certainly not be as sturdy in France in 2025 because it was previously, since a a lot wider array of competent BEV choices at the moment are accessible, ranging from considerably inexpensive worth factors. However don’t anticipate a 60+ % drop in Tesla’s YoY unit volumes in 2025, maybe extra just like the 13% drop seen in Europe between 2023 and 2024. Quantity will depend upon Tesla’s pricing technique and the attainable launch of a extra inexpensive mannequin.

In the meantime home model BEVs beneath Renault Group, and beneath Stellantis, will proceed to go from power to power in 2025, as increasingly inexpensive fashions (usually variants of the identical platform) are launched, all while the present Renault 5 and Citroen e-C3 additional ramp up. The Renault 4 will see first deliveries maybe earlier than the summer time (the brand new Renault Twingo should wait till 2026). The marginally enlarged Citroen e-C3 “Aircross” shall be delivered across the center of this 12 months. Peugeot might additionally tweak the pricing of the e-208 a bit.

Stellantis’s Fiat model will even supply some extra inexpensive fashions in 2025, together with the Fiat Grande Panda, and the (already lately delivering) Abarth-badged “600E” variant of the Fiat 600.

The European manufacturers received’t have all of it their very own manner although. Hyundai has simply launched the very compelling Hyundai Inster in France (no quantity knowledge but), and BYD has simply launched the Atto 2. These two be a part of the Abarth 600E within the B-segment.

Let’s watch this house. In the meantime, right here’s the 3-month rating:

Many of the prime 20 stays largely static, except for the nice efficiency of the brand new star, the Renault 5, which jumps up from its near-debut tenth place within the August-October interval, to the highest spot now. Based mostly on its latest efficiency, the Renault 5 is more likely to stay on prime for many of (maybe all of) 2025.

The opposite massive step up was for the Dacia Spring. The Spring spent a protracted interval at low volumes previous to November, and much exterior the highest 20. Now again to first rate volumes, it has climbed as much as sixth spot over the trailing 3 months, nearer to its glory days of 2021-2023.

With the launches of the upcoming inexpensive fashions talked about beforehand, let’s see if and when any of them (e.g. the Renault 4) handle to shake up this rating later within the 12 months.

Outlook

Together with the auto market shrinking by some 6% YoY, France’s broader economic system can be not doing nice, with This autumn 2024 financial knowledge calculated to point out YoY GDP progress of simply 0.7%, down from 1.2% in Q3. Headline annual inflation is at 1.4% and rates of interest at the moment are at 2.9%. Manufacturing PMI improved to 45 factors in January, although continues to be distinctly detrimental (beneath 50 factors).

As mentioned in latest stories, since legacy producers are nonetheless doing “the minimal attainable” to transition, the expansion of BEVs in 2025 will largely be formed by the brand new EU guidelines round emissions tightening. I discussed above that this could correlate with a BEV share someplace round 20% on common throughout the EU zone in 2025, maybe barely greater. This isn’t nice, however shall be an enchancment over the falling BEV share in lots of nations between 2023 and 2024.

France itself noticed flat BEV share in 2024, higher than some neighbours, and shall be again to progress this 12 months. I’m eager to see the extent of success of those new (considerably) inexpensive BEV fashions from European manufacturers. I’m hoping that their mere existence, and the competitors between them (and their ever rising volumes) will put downward strain on pricing of the adjoining BEV segments, and in the end carry mass-market BEVs a lot nearer to ICE “options” in pricing. Most of China’s BEVs already handed price-parity with ICE-cars in 2024. When will this occur in Europe?

What are your ideas on France’s auto market and prospects for 2025? What new BEV fashions are you searching for? Please bounce in to the dialogue within the feedback part under.