Pouring Sources Into AI — Does It Finish Properly? Will Diminishing Returns On FSD Sink Tesla?

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I wrote an article the opposite day titled “Tesla Proved Many Folks Fallacious For Years — Is This Time The Identical, Or Completely different?” The core factors of the article had been these:

1. Many individuals stated Tesla couldn’t do what it ended up doing at many phases of the corporate’s growth.
2. I believed Tesla may do these issues.
3. Now, I’m having a tough time believing in Tesla’s strategy to robotaxis and its plan to roll them out inside a couple of years (though I argued the alternative a decade in the past, and even as much as 5 years in the past).
4. So, I’m questioning, have I turn into the skeptic who can be confirmed improper, or am I proper to suppose it’s totally different this time and Tesla received’t obtain its robotaxi targets (once more)?

Down within the feedback, a reader, Doug Sanden, wrote the next:

“FSD coaching — log linear?

• • rising quantity of knowledge wanted for linear progress, or lowering progress for linear increses in information:
    video ‘Has Generative AI Already Peaked?’ – Computerphile
  • diminishing returns?
  • he’s describing the outcomes from this paper:
  • ‘No “Zero-Shot” With out Exponential Knowledge: Pretraining Idea Frequency Determines Multimodal Mannequin Efficiency’, Udandarao et al, 2024
  • inefficient log-linear scaling pattern
  • exponential want for coaching information”

I seemed up that video and watched it. Right here it’s, and I extremely advocate giving it a watch:

Once more, don’t skip the video, however I’ll attempt to summarize the important thing factors once more right here:

• Generative AI is wonderful and doing nice issues.
• Due to what it may well do, it looks like magic to many and likewise provides individuals the assumption that including increasingly more information, or constructing larger and larger fashions — or doing each — will make determining virtually something attainable and can allow increasingly more wonderful technological options.
• Nevertheless, in easy phrases, there are diminishing returns when the specified output or desired product will get extra sophisticated, extra nuanced.
• Additionally, as you try to realize these way more troublesome objectives, you find yourself pouring an unlimited sum of money into information assortment and mannequin processing, and you’ll find yourself down a deep cash pit basically chasing unicorns and butterfly farts.

Because it pertains to Tesla as an organization and Tesla Full Self Driving (FSD) as a product, that is mainly only a higher clarification of one thing I’ve been involved about for some time. I do suppose Tesla dangers chasing unicorns diminishing returns with its strategy to FSD, which I feel may burn an unlimited amount of money with out Tesla with the ability to roll out robotaxis. I additionally suppose this pertains to the “seesaw downside” I’ve mentioned a couple of occasions — that’s simply the impact of making an attempt to unravel very nuanced, sophisticated issues with the {hardware} and software program strategy Tesla is utilizing.

Perhaps I’m improper, as I famous in that article linked on the high. However I find yourself similar to this man on the finish of his video, the place he signifies that he expects generative AI to comply with the crimson line on the graph fairly than the yellow one — however that it might be thrilling if it did find yourself following the yellow one:

We’ll see. We’re nonetheless distant from Tesla robotaxis, however let’s see how the tech progresses.